The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has filed a civil complaint in federal district court that has shut down Intrade (mentioned on CD more than 100 times), the popular Ireland-based online prediction market, to Americans. Here’s the CFTC press release … read more
Obama’s re-election odds on Intrade plunged 7 points (from 74% to 66.5%) overnight following the debate in heavy trading (almost 100,000 contracts).
Intrade odds for the contract “The U.S. Supreme Court to rule individual mandate unconstitutional” have bee rising for the last two months and are now at 77.7%, or about 3.5-to-1 that the individual mandate will not be upheld.
Jonah questions the usefulness of Intrade, doubting whether the “wisdom of crowds” actually generates much predictive value when it comes to political prognostication. Don’t betting markets just follow the consensus, which generally follows the poll? Well, a 2010 study looked … read more
I don’t want to start a war with my AEI colleagues, specifically Intrade junkies Mark Perry and Jim Pethokoukis, but can I offer a small bit of skepticism about Intrade? I understand why prediction markets are interesting. But am I … read more