Inflation | AEIdeas

Tuesday, June 18, 2013

Credit: David Beckworth

Another mild inflation report that will probably fail to persuade the inflationistas…

James Pethokoukis | June 18, 2013, 11:17 am

What should the Fed do next? Something to consider: Economist David Beckworth correctly notes that a) long rates started rising several weeks before Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s “tapering” comments, and b) long rates on safe sovereign assets around the world are … read more >

Economics, International economy

Japan’s GDP report isn’t as great as it looks

John Makin | May 16, 2013, 11:26 am

Less noticed in Japan’s GDP report is the fact that the GDP deflator inflation measure fell at 2% SAAR, so that nominal GDP growth of just 1.5% resulted in the reported 3.5% real growth rate. Deflation remains alive and well … read more >

Pethokoukis

Still looking for inflation …

James Pethokoukis | April 29, 2013, 10:05 am

JP Morgan: The inflation data in the PCE report continued to look pretty soft. The headline PCE deflator ticked down 0.1% samr in March and was up only 1.0% oya. The core PCE price deflator—which is the Fed’s preferred measure … read more >

Pethokoukis

Gold bugs shouldn’t read this

James Pethokoukis | April 15, 2013, 11:33 am

MKM’s Mike Darda makes a number of great points here: 1. With gold tumbling more than 25% from its 2011 high (into official bear market territory), the strategy of buying gold (instead of equities) since the initiation of QE has … read more >

Pethokoukis

Debunking inflation conspiracy theorists one blog post at a time

James Pethokoukis | April 9, 2013, 3:17 pm

Matthew Yglesias on the Everyday Price Index, which shows inflation is really and truly much higher than the Labor Department says it is: The only problem with the EPI is that it’s wildly inaccurate. The reason is that some things … read more >

Pethokoukis, Economics, U.S. Economy

Inflation as your frenemy

James Pethokoukis | March 29, 2013, 1:21 pm

The New York Fed: When the shocks are such that the nominal interest rate is constrained by the zero bound, anticipated inflation is far from neutral, with output increasing if inflation is anticipated to rise. Moreover, contrary to the common … read more >

Carpe Diem

Fed Chair Ben Bernanke does have one of the best inflation records since WWII

Mark J. Perry | February 27, 2013, 10:18 am

From CNBC about Ben Bernanke’s testimony yesterday before the Senate Banking Committee: “In criticizing the central bank’s easy monetary policy, Sen. Bob Corker, a Republican from Tennessee, called Bernanke the biggest dove since World War II. Bernanke was quick to … read more >

Carpe Diem

Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank’s updated estimate of 10-year expected inflation: only 1.53%

Mark J. Perry | February 21, 2013, 4:36 pm

The Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank reported today its “latest estimate of 10-year expected inflation is 1.53%. In other words, the public currently expects the inflation rate to be less than 2% on average over the next decade (see chart above).” Methodology: “The Cleveland … read more >

Economics, U.S. Economy

A dime is what a penny was

Alex J. Pollock | February 8, 2013, 9:30 am

The Royal Canadian Mint recently ended its distribution of pennies. (A Canadian dollar is worth about the same as a US dollar and one Canadian cent the same as a US cent.) Australia and New Zealand have also dispensed with … read more >

Economics, Pethokoukis, U.S. Economy

Is the US government wildly understating the inflation rate? No, it isn’t

James Pethokoukis | January 17, 2013, 10:14 am

It’s hard to find much inflation in the US economy right now. As measured by the Labor Department’s consumer price index, prices increased by just 1.7% in 2012. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 1.9%. … read more >