Growth | AEIdeas

Wednesday, June 19, 2013

Every GOPer should read what McKinsey says about technological unemployment

James Pethokoukis | May 23, 2013, 1:36 pm

By the early 2020s, entitlement spending will likely drive ever larger US budget deficits. In 2023, for instance, so-called mandatory outlays will be 14.1% of GDP, a percentage point higher than today. And another decade out, they could equal nearly … read more >

Pethokoukis, Economics, U.S. Economy

Is inequality hurting the US economic recovery?

James Pethokoukis | May 17, 2013, 10:55 am

Stock markets and corporate profits are up, wage growth anemic. So Fed Governor Sarah Bloom Raskin is wondering whether the “large and increasing amount of inequality in income and wealth” is hampering the current US economic recovery and perhaps “pose … read more >

Pethokoukis, Economics, U.S. Economy

The US has more austerity than Europe. So why is America doing OK?

James Pethokoukis | May 17, 2013, 9:29 am

So which economy in the world is “suffering” most from austerity? As Capital Economics notes, the combination of US tax hikes and spending cuts means that over the next two years the federal budget deficit is expected to fall by … read more >

Pethokoukis, Economics, U.S. Economy

Is austerity really hurting the US economy?

James Pethokoukis | May 9, 2013, 1:11 pm

Two takes on the same message: The New York Times: “Economists See Deficit Emphasis as Impeding Recovery” National Journal: “Who Says Fiscal Policy Is Hurting the Economy? (Almost) Everyone.” 1. This is a tale of two economies. The “G” in … read more >

Pethokoukis, Economics, U.S. Economy

Why it’s bad news that rising income inequality might be ready to reverse

James Pethokoukis | May 8, 2013, 12:21 pm

Why has income inequality been rising in advanced economies — it’s not just the US, people — over the past few decades? The economic consensus mostly explains the phenomenon as a race between accelerating technological change and expanding education. And … read more >

Pethokoukis, Economics, U.S. Economy

Has Washington given up on the economy? Maybe so …

James Pethokoukis | May 2, 2013, 3:52 pm

As a quasi-preview to tomorrow’s April jobs report, National Journal provocatively asks: “Has Washington Given Up on the Economy?” Basically, the story is trying to ding President Obama and Republicans — mostly the latter — for being too focused on debt cutting: … read more >

Economics, Pethokoukis

Worrisome: Productivity growth is still stuck in first gear

James Pethokoukis | May 2, 2013, 11:14 am

Mike Feroli of JP Morgan: Productivity in the nonfarm business sector advanced at only a 0.7% annual rate in Q1, and over the past year has increased a mere 0.9%. The longer-run trend in productivity appears exceptionally weak: over the … read more >

Pethokoukis, Economics, U.S. Economy

Citigroup: US economy will never be what it once was. Probably

James Pethokoukis | April 30, 2013, 2:19 pm

In real terms, the US economy has grown at 3.2% a year since World War II, or 2% per person. But those days are likely over, says Citigroup in a new report. The bank’s econ team predicts US GDP growth … read more >

Credit: "Keynes: The Return of the Master" by Robert Skidelsky

Pethokoukis, Economics, U.S. Economy

Are we all Keynesians now — again?

James Pethokoukis | April 29, 2013, 9:41 am

Liberal thinkers, Paul Krugman most notably, realize that advanced economies are unlikely to undertake the massive fiscal stimulus they favor. That war is probably lost. But with a major policy victory out of reach, they are taking some comfort in … read more >

Pethokoukis, Economics, U.S. Economy

Weak GDP report no excuse to pump-up government

James Pethokoukis | April 26, 2013, 11:43 am

Another big decline in US government spending took its toll on first-quarter output. But the way to accelerate GDP growth is by boosting the private economy, not re-inflating the public sector. The nation’s gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, grew at an annualized … read more >