Great Recession

Saturday, May 25, 2013

Credit: Charles W. Calomiris and Stephen Haber

Hillary Clinton’s presidential hopes and the housing bust

James Pethokoukis | April 30, 2013, 9:38 am

There was never any detectable public clamor for a President Rosalynn Carter. Even if the former first lady had political ambitions, her husband’s disastrous presidency would have put the kibosh on them. So, too, there probably wouldn’t be quite as much … read more >

Pethokoukis, Economics, Regulation

Was it easy money or easy regulation that caused the housing bubble?

James Pethokoukis | April 12, 2013, 10:51 am

I’ve argued that tight monetary policy in 2008 turned what may have been a slowdown or mild downturn into the Great Recession. In other words, a minor replay of the Great Depression/Contraction. But that is a separate issue from what … read more >

Economics, Pethokoukis

As Great Recession started, Fed thought economic risks were to the ‘upside’

James Pethokoukis | January 18, 2013, 11:03 am

The Great Recession officially started in December 2007. But it wasn’t clear back then that the US economy has begun to tumble into a deep downturn. At least not to the Federal Reserve, which just released its 2007 FOMC meeting … read more >

Economics, Pethokoukis

In 2002, CBO predicted 2012 US debt would be 7.4% of GDP. In reality, it was almost 74% of GDP

James Pethokoukis | December 28, 2012, 9:40 am

Making economic and budget predictions is hard, especially when wars, recessions, and financial crises pop up unexpectedly. Here’s the Congressional Budget Office’s ten-year budget forecast from 2002 (note that this was after the Bush tax cuts were passed): And here’s what actually … read more >

Economics, Pethokoukis

US net worth has recovered $13.5 trillion, but still below 2007 peak

James Pethokoukis | December 12, 2012, 8:56 am

Ed Yardeni: By the way, the Fed’s latest Flow of Funds data show that the net worth of US households recovered by $1.7 trillion to $65 trillion during Q3. It is still below the record high of $67 trillion during … read more >

Paul Krugman's Strange Ireland Prediction

Pethokoukis

When it comes to economic policy, liberal pundits are failing their liberal base

James Pethokoukis | November 21, 2012, 11:40 am

Since the election, liberals have been hammering much of the right-of-center punditocracy for predicting a Romney victory. The bad forecasts, they argue, represent a rejection of math and science since basic statistical modeling showed a huge likelihood of an Obama … read more >

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Carpe Diem

The US economy is now producing 2.2% more output than before the recession, but with 3.84 million fewer workers

Mark J. Perry | November 6, 2012, 10:14 pm

The chart above is an updated version of one that I’ve featured several times before on CD, and helps to graphically capture several important trends in the U.S. economy over the last ten years: real GDP and civilian employment. It … read more >

Pethokoukis

Obama didn’t end the Great Recession that Bush didn’t cause

James Pethokoukis | November 6, 2012, 3:07 pm

If you think George W. Bush’s economic policies caused the Great Recession and Barack Obama’s ended it, then your Election Day decision is likely an easy one. But placing politics aside, I don’t think the economic evidence supports that thesis. … read more >

Pethokoukis, Economics, U.S. Economy

A reminder that free market policies don’t cause Great Recessions or Great Depressions

James Pethokoukis | October 25, 2012, 10:45 am

Amity Shlaes offers a vigor defense of the 1920s economy after President Obama tried to diss it by saying that Mitt Romney’s economic policies mean a return to the decade. The implication, of course, is that it was Wall Street’s … read more >

Pethokoukis

Joe Biden’s (and Barack Obama’s) very strange theory on what caused the Great Recession

James Pethokoukis | October 12, 2012, 11:12 am

This is really embarrassing. Joe Biden at last night’s vice presidential debate: And, by the way, they talk about this Great Recession if it fell out of the sky, like, “Oh, my goodness, where did it come from?” It came … read more >