081514uncertainty
Economics, Pethokoukis, U.S. Economy

Study: Economic uncertainty has cost the US a million jobs since 2010

The new study “The Asymmetric Effects of Uncertainty” by Kansas City Fed economist Andrew Foerster looks at heightened uncertainty — as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, or VIX — from three specific events: the May 2010 European sovereign debt crisis, the August 2011 US debt ceiling crisis, and the June 2013 confusion about the Fed’s plan to wind down its bond buying program. Foerster finds that uncertainty generated by those key events had a big negative impact on economic growth and job creation. read more >

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Economics, Pethokoukis

Economist: ‘Americans have lost a lot of confidence and replaced it with fear’

Recall the Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll from last week that found that (a) 49% of Americans think we are still in a recession, (b) an all-time higher of 76% “lack confidence that their children’s generation will have a better life than they do, and (c) 71% think the country is on the wrong track, up 8 percentage points from June. Which brings us to today’s new report on consumer confidence from the Reuters/University of Michigan. What really got the attention of economists was the expectations bit. Kind of sour. read more >