Pethokoukis, Economics, Taxes and Spending

Can we please agree that workers probably bear some of the corporate tax burden? Science!

When economist try to model how corporate income taxes work in the real world, they find that Mitt Romney was right when he said, “Corporations are people, my friend.” Some chunk of the tax burden, perhaps a rather large chunk in the 40% to 75% range, falls on workers. Cutting the tax might just raise worker wages. read more >

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Economics, Entitlements

Couldn’t have said it better myself: Salam’s ‘The wrong kind of Social Security reform’

My recent Wall Street Journal op-ed noted that, while Social Security’s funding shortfalls are growing, progressives are showing even less seriousness with regard to fixing them. Indeed, the most common position among progressives today is toward increasing Social Security benefits. New York Magazine’s Jon Chait (who I usually enjoy reading) takes me to task for the piece but National Review’s Reihan Salam handily dismantles Chait’s arguments – more handily than I could have myself, I think. read more >

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Economics, International economy

Is quantitative easing really going to save the euro?

Last week, at Jackson Hole, ECB President Mario Draghi clearly signaled that he has finally come around to recognizing the threat that deflation would pose to the Eurozone economic recovery. However, before jumping to the conclusion that this recognition removes the risk of yet another and more serious phase in the Eurozone debt crisis, one might want to reflect on two basic questions. read more >

Atlanta Fed
Economics, Pethokoukis

This chart shows part-time jobs in the US have become a trap rather than a launching pad

One key measure of job market health is the number of people working part-time for economic reasons (PTER) rather than by choice. Back in 2007, according to the Atlanta Fed, 61% of people working PTER the previous year transitioned into full-time work with the rest still working part-time either for economic reasons or by choice. read more >

Pethokoukis, Economics, U.S. Economy

Here’s what Goldman Sachs thinks Obama is going to do on immigration with executive amnesty

Sometime soon, it seems, President Obama will announce he’s taking executive action on immigration, both legal and illegal. In a new note, Goldman Sachs speculates what those actions might be, exactly. Its informed guesses: (a) excluding dependents from the cap on employment based green cards, (b) recapturing employment-based green cards. (c) allowing dependents of H-1B visa holders to work. Overall, Goldman thinks these changes would expand the US labor force by by 170,000 to 375,000, “equivalent equivalent to 0.1% to 0.25% of the US labor force.” read more >