Carpe Diem

Globalization is Good

“The prospects for developing countries are, in fact, probably more favorable now than they have been since World War II. International trade is growing faster than global GDP. The benefits of decades of learning with respect to operating global supply chains are accessible. Information and technology continues to lower transactions costs and to be a powerful integrating force. But perhaps even more important, the key players in all this — the leaders in emerging economies who have the responsibility for building policies that support private sector entrepreneurship and that lead to sustained inclusive growth — have a wealth of experience to rely on. No one is in the dark.”

~Nobel economist Michael Spence, from today’s WSJ

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State of the Rich Union

Best comment so far on President Bush’s State of the Union address:

“Once you live in a rich democracy like the U.S., it’s pretty much all gravy. The fights over income inequality, national health insurance, immigration policy, and so forth, all take place within a remarkably narrow range of national well-being, compared to the variance that currently exists around the globe.

A big government health care system may cause your happiness to vary by a percent or so from this mean (which direction depends on your political persuasion), but it will not bring you within a few orders of magnitude of a peasant farmer living on the edge of starvation in Darfur. This brings me a certain equanimity when watching the successive presidents deliver their speeches.”

From The Economist blog Free Exchange.

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Socrates and the Minimum Wage

Larry Reed of the Mackinac Center for Public Policy argues that what members of Congress need is not another lecture on the minimum wage from an economist, but rather an old-fashioned Socratic inquisition. If Socrates were with us, here’s how Larry Reed imagines such a dialogue might go.

Congressman: Look, a minimum wage of $7.25 per hour isn’t much.

Socrates: I’d like to know how you arrived at that figure. Was it some sophisticated equation, divine revelation or toss of the dice? Why didn’t you choose $20.00, which is not only a nice round number but also a lot more generous?

Congressman: Well, $20 would be too high, for sure. Too much of a jump at once.

Socrates: It sounds like you think the cost of labor might indeed affect the demand for it. Good! That’s progress. You’re not as oblivious about market forces as I thought. What I want to know is why you apparently don’t think higher labor costs matter when you raise the minimum wage from $5.15 to $7.25. Do you think everyone, regardless of skill level or experience, is automatically worth what Congress decrees?

Congressman: Now hold on a minute. I’m for the worker here.

Socrates: Then why on earth would you favor a law that says if a worker can’t find a job that pays at least $7.25 per hour, he’s not allowed to work?

Congressman: I’m not saying he can’t work! I’m saying he can’t be paid less than $7.25!

Socrates: I thought we were making progress, but perhaps not. Can you tell me, if your scheme becomes law, what happens to a worker who is worth only $6.00 because of his low skills, lack of education, scant experience or a low demand for the work itself? Will employers happily employ him anyway and take a $1.25 loss for every hour he’s on the job?

Congressman: Businesses need workers and $1.25 isn’t much, so common sense and decency would suggest that of course they would.

Socrates: So employers who employ people are too greedy to pay $7.25 unless they’re ordered to, but then when Congress acts, they suddenly become generous enough to hire people at a loss. Who was your logic instructor?

Congressman: Can we hurry this up? I’ve got other plans for other people I have to think about.

Socrates: I give up. You congressmen are incorrigible. You’re the only people on whom my teaching method has no discernible impact.

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Dollar Stores a Hit in India

As Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and other retail giants prepare to enter India, an unexpected American rival — California’s My Dollarstore Inc. — is already here and attracting the affluent middle-class customers Wal-Mart and others covet.

In the U.S., most of the so-called dollar stores that sell discounted products at a single price are in low-rent strip malls. In India, My Dollarstores target big spenders, setting up in prime ground-floor spaces at the newest malls. Even the prices are higher end. While everything costs $1 at My Dollarstores in the U.S., in India the same products sell for 99 rupees, or about $2, thanks to transportation costs and import tariffs.

Read more in the WSJ.

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Carpe Diem Exclusive

Carpe Diem exclusive: In December, I reported that 15 U.S. states set historical record-low unemployment rates in 2006 through November. State unemployment rates for December were just released today by the BLS, and although the number of states setting historical record low jobless rates in 2006 remained steady at 15 (see states below), several states like Hawaii and New Mexico had December rates that broke the previous record set earlier in the year. Here are the 15 states that set historical record low jobless rates in 2006:

Alabama: 3.2% in November
Arizona: 3.6% in August
California: 4.5% in October
Florida: 3.0% in June
Hawaii: 2.0% in October
Idaho: 3.2% in December
Illinois: 4.1% in December
Louisiana: 2.9% in July
Montana: 3.4% in March
Nevada: 3.6% in January
New Mexico: 3.8% in December
New York: 4.0% in October
Utah: 2.5% in October
Washington: 4.6% in March
W. Virigina: 3.8% in January

A Google News (and Yahoo News) search indicates that nobody has yet reported this, shouldn’t that be big economic news that almost 1 out of 3 states have set record-low jobless rates in 2006? If I were George Bush, I think I would mention this tonight.

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Strong Job Market for College Grads

From today’s WSJ (“Class of ’07 Gets Plenty Of Job Offers”): This year is shaping up as the strongest for college recruiting since the downturn earlier this decade, colleges report. Traditionally heavy recruiters, including management consulting firms, investment banks and accounting firms, are intensifying college recruiting efforts. They’re also facing more competition from other employers in such fields as technology, consumer products, government and even nonprofits.

Employers plan to hire 17% more graduates from the class of 2007 than they got from the class of 2006, according to the National Association of Colleges and Employers. That would make this year the strongest job market since 2000-2001. More than half of the surveyed employers said they planned to increase hiring; only 5% planned a decrease. Salaries were forecast to rise 4.6%, according to another survey by the same group.

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If You Regulate Something, You’ll Get Less of It


NYC vs. London, NYC is losing….

Fact: NYC has 8 million people, but more than half the wages and salaries are collected by just a few hundred thousand workers in the financial services industry; and the businesses that serve that industry, such as law firms and printers, account for much more.

Fact: From 2002 to 2005, London’s financial-services work force expanded 4.3%, while New York City’s fell 0.7%, or more than 2,000 jobs.

Reasons (according to a recent McKinsey & Co. report):

1. The American regulatory framework, particularly the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, is “a thicket of complicated rules, rather than a streamlined set of commonly understood principles, as is the case in the United Kingdom and elsewhere.”

2. The legal environments in other nations “far more effectively discourage frivolous litigation.”

3. Immigration restrictions that make it difficult for skilled workers and foreign business visitors to come to the U.S.

Read the WSJ article here and the IHT article here.

Carpe Diem

Quote of the Day: Globalization and Growth

“There are no examples of sustained high growth in the postwar period that do not involve integration into the global economy. The systematic reduction of barriers to trade and investment in the last 55 years, and the dramatically falling costs of transportation and information and communications technologies, have combined to raise the level of that integration. It is the combined effect of these trends that has made the global economy an increasingly powerful source of potential growth.”

~Nobel economist Michael Spence, in today’s WSJ

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