Now I’m not saying I think the U.S. economy is about to go into a recession, but it does seem like there is a certain amount of “recession psychology” going on, and some have suggested that we might be “talking ourselves into a recession.” Recessionary fears seem to generate more media attention than maybe more realistic talk of an economic slowdown, which feeds the “recession psychology” (see the increase in “recession” hits above on Google Trends for January).
According to futures trading on Intrade, there is now about a 71% chance of a U.S. recession in 2008. So let’s assume it happens: the U.S. economy goes into a recession this year. How bad will it be and how long will it last? The chart above shows the average length of U.S. recessions going back to 1854, using data from the NBER.
We know this for sure: It could be a lot worse, recessions used to last almost two years during the 1854-1919 period, and 1.5 years in the 1919-1945 period. Since WWII, the average recession lasted 10 months, and the last two recessions (1990-1991 and 2001) lasted only 8 months. With the support of a booming world economy, we could expect a short and shallow 2008 recession, IF if happens. If futures trading is correct, there’s a 29% of NOT having a recession, so don’t give up hope.
We would have to experience at least 6 months of significant economic downturn to have a recession, and there’s no evidence yet that there’s even been one month yet of serious decline in the important recession-indicating variables. I’m still saying the U.S. economy is not in recession. But then there’s always the joker….