Carpe Diem

Freddie Mac: Delinquency Rates

Interesting chart above from Freddie Mac, showing foreclosures through the middle of 2007. Note that delinquency rates for FHA and VA loans were declining in 2007 and flat for prime conventional mortgages, so the delinquency problems (at least through the middle of 2007) were affecting only the subprime mortgage sector. It will be interesting to see how this changes in the last half of 2007.

Carpe Diem

8% Jobless Rate Good? In Germany It’s 15-Yr. Low

Jan. 31 (Bloomberg)Germany’s unemployment rate fell to the lowest level in 15 years in January. The jobless rate, adjusted for seasonal swings, dropped to 8.1%, the Federal Labor Agency in Nuremberg said today.

Comment: We haven’t had an unemployment rate in the U.S. above 8% in almost a quarter century, since December of 1983 (see chart above, click to enlarge), following the longest post-WWII recession in U.S. history (16 months).

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Forbes’ Inaugural List: Top 10 Most Miserable Cities

Forbes Magazine introduces the Forbes Misery Measure, based on a city’s unemployment rate, personal tax rate, commute time, weather, crime, and toxic waste proximity. The top ten “most miserable” cities, according to Forbes:

1. Detroit, MI
2. Stockton, CA
3. Flint, MI
4. New York City
5. Philadelphia, PA
6. Chicago, IL
7. Los Angeles, CA
8. Modesto, CA
9. Charlotte, NC
10. Providence, RI

Carpe Diem

24th Month of Real Disposable Income Growth

The BEA reported today that Real Disposable Income grew by 2.1% in December from a year ago, the 24th consecutive month of positive growth (see chart above).

Bottom Line: Real Disposable Income is one of the 5 economic recession-indicating variables watched by the NBER (the others are real GDP, industrial production, trade sales, and employment), and the 2.1% growth in December suggests that there is still no evidence yet that recessionary conditions are affecting the U.S. economy.

Update: Graph now goes back to 2001
.