Rising oil prices, measured in dollars, get all of the media attention, largely because oil is priced and sold in dollars in world oil markets. What has gotten much less attention is the price of oil in other currencies like British pounds and Euros, which have both appreciated vs. the USD by 16-18% over the last few years, helping to offset the higher price of oil in dollars for Europeans.
The chart above (click to enlarge) shows that oil prices in dollars have almost tripled since 2004, whereas oil prices in pounds and euro have only doubled during this period. Since July 2006, oil prices in dollars have risen more than 15% (see vertical line above), compared to modest increases over the same period of only 2.74% in euros and 4% in pounds.
Further, consider that $100 oil today is only 67.4 euros per barrel at today’s exchange rate of $1.4828/euro, compared to 114 euros per barrel at the exchange rate 5 years ago of $0.8766/euro. The double-digit appreciation of major currencies (pound, euro, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc, etc.) vs. the USD might be another factor that explains why the world economy has been able to absorb the shock of $100 oil.
From the NY Times, “Throughout Europe, the rise of the euro has acted as a hedge against fluctuations in the dollar-denominated oil market.”
NY Times: Transparency International, an organization that tracks corruption, ranks countries from least to most corrupt, and in its 2007 index Venezuela was at 162 out of 179 countries.
The charts above are based on Federal Reserve commercial banking data released on Monday and available here, with updated data on a) loan charge-off rates and b) loan delinquency rates through the third quarter 2007 for all U.S. commercial banks.
As the charts show, despite all of the recent bad news and “gloom and doom” about the U.S. banking sector, the commercial banking sector might actually be surviving the subprime crisis quite well, at least so far. The charge-off rates for all bad loans (0.60%) has increased recently (top chart), but is about half the 1.2% rate in 2002, and about 1/3 the 1.75% rate in 1991. The charge-off rate for real estate loans (.19%, or only about 2 properties per 1,000) in the third quarter 2007 is almost half of the .29% rate in 2001, and less than 1/6th of the 1.2% rate in 1991.
Likewise, loan delinquency rates have increased recently (bottom chart), but are still far below the rates of the late 1980s and most of the 1990s.
On a previous CD post, I reported that not a single U.S. bank failed in either 2005 or 2006, and only 3 banks have failed in 2007. The loan charge-off and delinquency rates for U.S. commercial banks through the third quarter of 2007 indicate that our banking system is surviving the subprime crisis, without any danger of pending collapse.
Bottom Line: The U.S. banking system is probably stronger and more stable than most people give it credit for. Empirical data on bank charge-off rates and delinquency rates, at least through the third quarter 2007, suggest that banks are probably doing better than most people think.
One of the most outrageous consequences of the war on drugs is the federal crackdown on medical marijuana, which is used by patients to help treat the effects of cancer, glaucoma, HIV-AIDS, chronic pain and nausea, and other severe symptoms associated with serious illnesses. Medical marijuana prescribed by a physician is legal in 12 states, yet federal agents are raiding state-approved dispensaries and preventing patients from having safe access to this drug.
In Episode 2 of Reason.tv’s Drew Carey Project, Drew takes a look at patients who need and use medical marijuana in California, and how the federal government is making their lives even worse.
In some “Black Friday bargain hunting,” the broader stock market indexes rebounded today by about 1.4% (see chart above, SP=red line, DJ=black and NASDAQ=green), and bank stocks rebounded at almost twice that rate (about 2.5%) as measured by the NASDAQ Bank Index (blue line above).
Maybe there’s hope.
(P.S. I’ll probably retire from intraday prognasticatin’, and wait until the market has closed to do my analyses.)
Returning to Iceland After Shopping Bender
at the Mall of America
MINNEAPOLIS – Andrea Guðjónsdóttir arrived in Minnesota from Iceland last week with nothing but the clothes on her back. Oh, and two empty suitcases, which she promptly filled to near-bursting with clothes, toys and other gifts during a five-day shopping spree in the Twin Cities.
“Everything’s so cheap,” said Guðjónsdóttir, 35, who lives in Akranes, a seaport city on Iceland’s west coast. “You can pay $30 for Levi’s here; at home, it’d be $200.”
Guðjónsdóttir joins a growing number of shoppers across the world who are coming to the U.S. — and Minnesota — this holiday season to take advantage of good deals against the falling dollar. At a time when the U.S. economy is sagging, retailers say foreign tourists are providing a hedge against a Christmas season that’s expected to be the slowest in five years.
There are wild cards that need to be kept in mind when you hear income statistics thrown around. One of these wild cards is that most Americans do not stay in the same income brackets throughout their lives. Millions of people move from one bracket to another in just a few years.
What that means statistically is that comparing the top income bracket with the bottom income bracket over a period of years tells you nothing about what is happening to the actual flesh-and-blood human beings who are moving between brackets during those years.
Following trends among income brackets over the years creates the illusion of following people over time. But the only way to follow people is to follow people.
That is why the IRS data, which are for people 25 years old and older, and which follow the same individuals over time, find those in the bottom 20 percent of income-tax filers almost doubling their income in a decade. That is why they are no longer in the same bracket.
That is also why the share of income going to the bottom 20 percent bracket can be going down, as the Census Bureau data show, while the income going to the people who began the decade in that bracket is going up by large amounts.
~Thomas Sowell in “Income Confusion“