Carpe Diem

Chart of the day: Strongest 6-month job gain since 2006

jobsSome highlights from today’s Employment Situation report:

1. The increase in US payrolls over the last six months through July (1,465,000) was the strongest six months for hiring in the US since April 2006, see chart above (HT: Annalyn Kurtz). More than 200,000 new jobs were added in each of the last six months — the last time that happened was 1997!

2. Oil and gas extraction jobs increased in July to a 28-year high of 212,300, and were up by 7.5% compared to a year ago.

3. July construction payrolls increased by 22,000 from June to the highest level since May 2009, more than five years ago.

4. US manufacturers added 28,000 jobs in July, bringing factory payrolls to their highest level since March 2009.

5. Employment for the “Temporary Help Services” category increased in July to a new record high of 2.88 million jobs, an 8% increase over a year ago.

40 thoughts on “Chart of the day: Strongest 6-month job gain since 2006

  1. The manufacturing and job numbers look good – but it is way to close to an election to believe them. 2012 the numbers moved up fantastically in 4 months before the election as well, but were mysteriously corrected downward in November and then in 2013 it was also discovered several folks in the cencus bureau and elsewhere were falsifying numbers to help the President.

    It is sad that this is the case but everything in the government has been politicized.

        • That link was pathetic marque. All you’ve got is a hack journalist with one anonymous source making some wild allegations and a single one of 7,000 census employees who was too lazy to actually do his surveys so he made them up. He was caught and fired. And even this link does not really allege White House involvement. Of course there is some vague innuendo.

          You are right that this is no World Trade Center Conspiracy. That one found more followers.

          • So now some congressmen believing something makes it trustworthy marque? And by your own description this is the most interesting support for the idea.

            This is about as fast as a set of goalposts can be moved. I never knew you such a high regard for Congress.

          • And by the way marque, I am arguing in support of the credibility of Mark’s original post here. Supporting the blog owner’s post is not normally considered trolling.

            Advancing a wacko conspiracy theory that challenges the blog owner’s post usually is considered trolling.

          • Marque, you’ll never convince a true believer like Greg G.

            Even if you had a smoking gun, this idiot would squirm and weasel his way to self denial, like Lois Lerner.

            That is why leftists deserve no quarter.

          • @mesa
            You know, I hope Greg is right and the numbers aren’t being manipulated for the election. I still reserve an opinion until I see the first corrections after the elections. Even during periods without chicanery there seemed to be an inordinate amount of downward corrections.

          • Agreed, but what we are witnessing now is nothing short of criminality, on many fronts.

            The people in power right now will not hesitate to manipulate and alter “official reporting” for political gain. I know many of them. They are shameless, and stupid.

            Your instincts are correct.

      • “… in 2011 initial and continuing [unemployment] claims have been revised higher the week following [their initial release] 91% and 100% of the time, respectively. A purely statistical explanation for this phenomenon is “impossible.”” — Zerohedge

        • Another pathetic link Che. Some sample language from it:

          “This has lead to speculation that…”

          “could be a prelude to…”

          “there is a concern that…”

          Simply linking to some wingnut speculating on the internet is not the same as actually providing evidence.

          • Yes, and John Erlichman and Gordon Liddy marched right out into the open, didn’t they, idiot?

            The evidence of executive branch manipulation and/or subordinate impropriety is overwhelming.

            Obama will be lucky to finish his (undeserved second) term.

          • Che

            No one can ever prove that a conspiracy doesn’t exist. All you can do is show the problems with the evidence that people think supports the conspiracy theory.

    • The numbers are adjusted to produce the narrative that is favoured by the government no matter which party is in control. Given the fact that the full time workers are being replaced by lower paid part time workers in many cases I do not see support for Mark’s optimism. Add to this that the adult population has gone up by a bigger amount than the number of full time jobs and the fact that the number of adults who are out of the work force is at a record and you are looking at depression level employment data. That is hardly good news.

      And let me point out this little problem again; the shale companies are still cash flow negative and have still to show any true economic profits outside of the tiny core areas in the better formations. If you look at the ND data you see that a 47% increase in the number of shale wells over the last two years had not stopped the well productivity numbers from going down as the production rate per operating well has gone down from 144 bpd to 127 bpd. Those who understand the huge depletion rates should be able to see that the math does not work and should note that without access to cheap loans that can never be fully paid back the shale industry would be tiny and limited to area where there was profit to be made.

      The big issue as I see it is inventory build. Many of the manufacturing jobs will dry up once the subprime loans in the auto sector dry up and someone has to deal with all those unsold cars sitting on dealer lots.

  2. Mark,
    Have you seen any numbers about what the past few years would look like (grim?) without the huge contribution of the Shale Oil Industry (which is something you frequently comment on)?
    I have a suspicion that some of the rosiness in the numbers may disappear at revision time, when it will no longer make the headlines.

    • Well, since the end of the recession, the US economy has added approx 6.3 million jobs. Of that, approx 48,600 (or 0.8%) came from the Oil & Gas industry. The direct impact on employment is mild.

      The bigger thing from the oil & gas boom has been “downstream” effects, like lower energy bills, reduced input costs, etc.

  3. The increase in US payrolls over the last six months through July (1,465,000) was the strongest six months for hiring in the US since April 2006“…

    Really, eh?

    Peter Morici noted on July 29: REAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS AT LEAST 18 PERCENT
    Note the following: ‘Since 2000, Congress has enhanced the earned income tax credit and expanded programs that provide direct benefits to low-income workers, including food stamps, Medicaid, Obamacare, and rent and mortgage assistance‘…

  4. In June, 500,000 full-time jobs went away and 800,000 part-time jobs were added. Do we know the numbers for July yet? I’m not getting excited about our robust economy swapping out full-time work for part-time.

    And 96,000 of the jobs were government.

  5. Huge slack in most labor markets. The Fed should aggressively pursue growth—along with other federal policies.
    Expand the private sector, shrink federal civilian and military spending.
    Cut SSDI and VA welfare “disability” programs by two-thirds.

  6. The problem is, most Dems will say Obama gets credit for this, and it is not easy to dig into the details to see why he does not deserve credit.

    For one thing, this is in SPITE of Obama. Without Obama’s governmental burden, the number of jobs created would be 2M higher than now, without Obamacare, opposition to fracking, tax increases, regulatory excess, etc.

    One thing that does tend to correlate to strong job growth is when the House is in Republican control.

    1994-2000, 2002-06, 2010-present.

    Whichever party controls the WH, if the House is in GOP hands, jobs grow.

  7. The problem is, most Dems will say Obama gets credit for this, and it is not easy to dig into the details to see why he does not deserve credit.

    For one thing, this is in SPITE of Obama. Without Obama’s governmental burden, the number of jobs created would be 2M higher than now, without Obamacare, opposition to fracking, tax increases, regulatory excess, etc.

    One thing that does tend to correlate to strong job growth is when the House of Representatives is in Republican control.

    1994-2000, 2002-06, 2010-present.

    Whichever party controls the WH, if the House of Reps is in GOP hands, jobs grow.

  8. There are only 212,300 gas and extraction jobs in the U.S.? That’s incredible – I would’ve expected at least a million. That is phenomenally productive considering the amount we extract.

    • That is phenomenally productive considering the amount we extract.

      Yeah, most of the work is done by machines.

      By contrast, there are a total of 114,000 federal and contract employees working for the Department of Energy, and I can’t find anything useful that they produce.

      • They do vital work related to safety of our nuclear weapon arsenal, and some of their scientists produce some very useful research. But other than that, I agree that it is overstaffed for what we get.

  9. While the overall July job numbers are VERY good, the number of part-time workers (who seek full-time work) is not dropping — it remains at about 7.5 million. This is an unsettling trend.

    • While the overall July job numbers are VERY good”…

      No Mr. Rider they’re NOT good, far from in fact…

      The federal government is using wealth transfer schemes and other forms of extortion to subsidize the low wage market in this country…

      The numbers as released are totally bogus due to the federal government interfering in the jobs market…

  10. Can’t find a good job in California? These 14 states offer good employment opportunities
    by Richard Rider

    Looking for a job in California? Assuming that you aren’t in the STEM field, you might not be having much luck — at least in getting the job for which you are qualified. Even if you get a job — good or not so good — it’s difficult to get full-time employment.

    Sadly, most of the improvement in the unemployment figures (both in CA and the nation) are due to two bad factors:
    1. Most of the increase in the number of jobs are PART-time jobs. And anyone employed for even one hour a week is deemed “employed” for statistical purposes.
    2. With more and more discouraged people giving up looking for work, that reduces the percent of “unemployed.” To be unemployed, you have to be looking (however little) for work.

    Here’s the latest California unemployment figures, and how they compare with other states:

    CA is tied for the 5th worst state unemployment rate (June, 2014) – 7.4%. National unemployment rate 6.2%. National unemployment rate not including CA is 6.0%, making the CA unemployment rate 22.6% higher than the average of the other 49 states. (Sadly, one of the best performances we’ve managed in several years – we were at 4.8% in Nov, 2006 – vs. national 4.6%).
    http://www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htm

    That being said, there are a number of states that could use MORE workers. Below is a chart of 14 states with under 5% unemployment.

    Of course, topping the list is North Dakota with an amazingly low 2.7% unemployment rate. That translates into premium wages, though a shortage of housing coupled with frigid, prolonged winters makes it a less than desirable place to live.

    But look at the other employment choices. Liberals can pick Vermont, Hawaii, or Minnesota. Moderates have several states to choose from, and conservatives have a bigger number of options.

    IF one is willing to pull up stakes and move, there are places where jobs are pretty easy to find. To the extent government subsidies the unemployed, that reduces the incentive to move to where the jobs are.

    If you want to see the unemployment percentages for the full 50 states (and who wouldn’t!), go to this link:
    http://www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htm

    And, to answer your most burning question: Texas, in spite of absorbing hundreds of thousands of refugee job seekers, has an unemployment rate of 5.1%.

    Unemployment Rates for States
    Monthly Rankings
    Seasonally Adjusted
    June 2014p
    Rank State Rate
    1 NORTH DAKOTA 2.7
    2 NEBRASKA 3.5
    2 UTAH 3.5
    2 VERMONT 3.5
    5 SOUTH DAKOTA 3.8
    6 WYOMING 4.0
    7 HAWAII 4.4
    7 IOWA 4.4
    7 NEW HAMPSHIRE 4.4
    10 MINNESOTA 4.5
    10 MONTANA 4.5
    10 OKLAHOMA 4.5
    13 IDAHO 4.7
    14 KANSAS 4.9

    • What? Vermont, our most socialist state has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the country?

      Doesn’t that violate all the known laws of economics?

      • While the economic climate in Vermont is lousy overall, it’s got some pluses. A major Vermont tax source is (like Nevada) the sales tax targeted at tourists — which is a net gain for the governments at “outsiders” expense. Moreover, it’s in the pack for regulatory climate and litigation.

        Like South Dakota, one aspect that helps its unemployment is its annual net domestic outmigration — people seek warmer climates. Hence there’s a smaller labor pool than you would find in, say, California.

        Also Vermont — unlike most Democrat-controlled states, is VERY good on PERSONAL freedoms. For instance, in Vermont, one can carry a firearm without a permit. Good luck trying to do that in most of the other deep blue states where nanny government runs wild.

        Vermont is an “old school” liberal state. WThough it favors government programs (especially healthcare), it has been prudent on debt, while it cherishes personal freedoms.
        http://freedominthe50states.org/overall/vermont

        • Richard,

          You make a few good points but you’ll still have to explain to me how the freedom to carry firearms lowers unemployment. Especially since Vermonters don’t actually carry firearms all that much.

          And how are a lousy economic climate and ranking 43rd out of 50 on that silly freedom in the 50 states survey so easily overcome? There are a lot of northern states where people are inclined to seek warmer climates and a lot of states that benefit from tourism.

          • There’s another controversial factor few want to talk about. Vermont is 95.2% white and 1.4% Asian. ON AVERAGE, white Yankees and Asians have a better work ethic, value education more and are less prone to seek welfare than blacks or Hispanics (who combined make up only 2.9% of the population).

            Hence Vermont has a low welfare load to shoulder, combined with a population seeking work (often working in adjoining states and bringing back cash, which helps the Vermont economy).
            http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/50000.html

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