Carpe Diem

Friday afternoon linkage

usoil1. Chart of the Day: The shale oil boom helped push US oil output in June to 8.456 million barrels per day, the highest level of domestic crude oil production in more than 27 years, going back to April 1987 during the Regan administration.

2. GDP forecasting (nowcasting): The Atlanta Fed now has a forecasting model – “GDPNow” – that provides updated, estimates of GDP growth ahead of the three official quarterly GDP releases from the BEA starting a month after the quarter ends. The current “nowcast” of real GDP in Q2 is 2.6%, after being updated yesterday with new wholesale trade data. (HT: Morgan Frank and see Jimmy P’s related post here.)

3. Take a Guess: Who Was Obama’s Biggest Campaign Contributor By Far in 2012 – Almost 50% Ahead of the No. 2 Contributor? You Might Be Very Surprised. Or Maybe Not.

4. Racial Disparity Weed Map: In six states and DC, blacks are more than five times more likely to be arrested for possessing weeds compared to whites, even though weed usage doesn’t vary by race. On average across all states, blacks are 3.7 times more likely than whites to be arrested for weed possession.

5. From Vanguard: Debunking five myths and misconceptions about index investing.

6. America, Here’s Your Drug War: DEA handcuffed a drug suspect and locked him in a cell for 5 days without food or water. Luckily, the guy got a $4.1 million settlement for his “near death” experience.

7. Milton Friedman (featured previously on CD): “The minimum wage law is most properly described as a law saying that employers must discriminate against people who have low skills. The consequences of minimum wage laws have been almost wholly bad. We have increased unemployment and increased poverty.”

8. Not All Police Are Warrior Cops Like in the US: According to Germany’s Der Spiegel, German police shot only 85 bullets in all of 2011 — 49 warning shots and 36 shots on suspects; 15 persons were injured, and 6 were killed. In contrast, US warrior cops have shot and killed more than 20 Americans so far this year, just as part of their drug enforcement operations, and they recently fired 84 shots at just one murder suspect in Harlem and another 90 shots at one fleeing unarmed man in Los Angeles.

9. Mixed-Raced Student Sues University of Connecticut. She Says They Lied to Her About Her “Merit” Scholarship to Secretly Promote Racial Diversity.

10. Inconvenient Chart: Global temperatures have been flat for more than 17 years (see smaller chart at the bottom right) while global CO2 levels have been increasing. Wasn’t there supposed to be a relationship?  co2

65 thoughts on “Friday afternoon linkage

  1. 10.

    temperatures are below the ipcc best case scenario (which was based on co2 dropping)

    co2 is WAY above their worst case scenartio.

    the r squared of co2 and temperature for the last 18 years is 0.00.

    the lack of correlation is literally perfect.

    correlation does not prove causality, but a complete lack of correlation sure is enough to make one wonder if the models have it wrong.

  2. CO2 levels are definitely rising, and who knows about the temperature. But what we DON’T know is the value in the end. High temperatures and high CO2 both increase the rate at which vegetables grow. Whether this effect will outweigh negative social consequences is something we’ll have to wait to see in the future.

    • bob-

      what social consequences?

      the historical record would seem to argue that higher temperatures are a boon.

      the medieval period was warmer than today, the roman warmer still, and minoan positively scorching by today’s standards.

      the little ice age that ended in 1850 was a very cold period characterized by short growing seasons and famine.

      just what are these “negative social consequences”?

      people seem to assume that part of the argument and forget that the periods of the greatest flourishing of civilization over the last 3000 years were all considerably warmer than today.

      • morganovich: It sounds like you aren’t too concerned about “global warming”. I guess I’m not either, though perhaps the final judgement does await future developments.

      • No the MWP was not warmer than today. Rather it was warm for its time period. The world became warmer than the MVP period in the early 20th century and has kept warming.

        • @Gil
          > the MWP was not warmer than today

          Actually, it was:

          “Pacific Ocean Heat Content During the Past 10,000 Years

          Yair Rosenthal, Braddock K. Linsley, Delia W. Oppo

          Abstract:

          Observed increases in ocean heat content (OHC) and temperature are robust indicators of global warming during the past several decades. We used high-resolution proxy records from sediment cores to extend these observations in the Pacific 10,000 years beyond the instrumental record. We show that water masses linked to North Pacific and Antarctic intermediate waters were warmer by 2.1 ± 0.4°C and 1.5 ± 0.4°C, respectively, during the middle Holocene Thermal Maximum than over the past century. Both water masses were ~0.9°C warmer during the Medieval Warm period than during the Little Ice Age and ~0.65° warmer than in recent decades.

          • While drawing any final conclusions concerning global temperatures from just the tropical western Pacific might be premature, they also found that “the modern rate of Pacific OHC change is, however, the highest in the past 10,000 years”.

  3. #8 No law enforcement officers from Federal Air Marshalls (the most highly trained marksmen) down to rental security guards are trained to fire warning shots as described in Germany. Our universal rule in the U.S. is you don’t ever shoot unless you plan to kill, and you don’t stop shooting until the threat is neutralized. That’s why only the first shot should usually be questioned.

    Maybe Germany has a different culture than ours where warning shots work, and maybe that different culture is why more citizens are not shot because the police are not forced to shoot. I wonder: Do citizens shoot police officers in Germany as often as they do here?

    • Walt
      Strangely, that is the same exact number of police officers shot and killed in the line of duty so far this year. Warrior cop or hero?

      Of course the one thing has nothing to do with the other, but nice try.

      • “Of course the one thing has nothing to do with the other, but nice try”

        Sure one thing has to do with the other, and even if it doesn’t, that police officers routinely get shot should be acknowledged. You don’t think part of the reason cops in the U.S. shoot people is because they are afraid of being shot? You must not know any cops, Ron. I could not find how many police officers in Germany were shot and killed in the line of duty this year to help my claim, but I assume it’s rare if they are firing warning shots.

        I will say again if someone is firing warning shots they are not in fear for their life being taken and probably should not be shooting. U.S. courts frown on people, even cops, using deadly force against anything other than deadly force and that’s why you don’t usually see police shooting unarmed fleeing felons.

          • The topic was deaths and warning shots by police and civilians in Germany and the U.S. in both of the sentences in link #8. Which sentences of mine don’t primarily address one of those two topics, Ron? I was not the one who failed to mention that police die from gunshots in the line of duty in the U.S., and I would never apologize for acknowledging their sacrifice because I personally know many police officers.

    • Sorry, it should be that 25 Americans have been killed this year in drug enforcement operations. The body count of 25 casualties INCLUDES police officers and law enforcement officials who have been killed in drug enforcement operations.

  4. #3 Who Was Obama’s Biggest Campaign Contributor

    US Government, State, Justice, Health and Human Services – this is simply and indication of how deeply unions have corrupted our government.

    Does anyone really believe that these same people, under a Republican administration, are doing everything in their power to carry out the administrations agenda?

    Government employees unions are a cancer that needs to be excised from the body politic.

    • Che is dead:

      You can add teachers unions, too. Most kids entering second-grade in America can’t yet name and write all of the alphabet letters. Teachers unions give money to the Democrats, but don’t make enough money to make kids literate.

    • while it could be gov’t unions I think the reality is more of a concern. Big gov’t want to continue big gov’t. These so called public servants are not stupid, they know if the small gov’t types get in they are at actual risk of getting off the gravy train!

  5. 8. Not All Police Are Warrior Cops Like in the US

    The cops in the U.S. are gearing up just in case they find a parentless child from Cuba that needs to be forcibly repatriated.

    The hundreds of thousands of “unaccompanied children” from Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and every other Third World shithole will, of course, be allowed to stay in the U.S.. They will immediately be placed on public assistance, registered as Democrats and encouraged to vote

    • Che,

      —”They will immediately be placed on public assistance, registered as Democrats and encouraged to vote”

      Well maybe not “immediately.” First we’ve got to finish that amendment that allows children to vote. Then we will require them to vote. The conspiracy is deeper than you think. Be very afraid.

      • Or be smugly confident the demographic tide guarantees a permanent Democrat mouths-to-feed- majority if the status quo holds.

  6. On average across all states, blacks are 3.7 times more like than whites to be arrested for weed possession“…

    That’s a problem why?

    • juandos,

      If African-American parents taught their children to write the alphabet before kindergarten, they’d do very well in school, and such kids are unlikely to take drugs.

      • Well bob the problem in this particular is unsurprisingly piss poor reporting on the part of the New York Times….

        Though blacks and whites may be committing the same drug crime on a fairly equal basis there still so many other factors come into play regarding drug busts but the NYT insists on playing the race card…

        • juandos,

          It isn’t just the NYT. There seems to be a complete blackout about Adams’ horrendous finding, even though she’s the most famous education guru in the world. In 1990 she wrote, “Beginning To Read”, which almost every educator has read, and it still sells more amazon copies than her new blockbuster, “ABC Foundations”.

          • @Bob Rose

            All Adams “found” essentially was that g varies by race. We already knew that.

          • Bob

            According to the two top Amazon reviews Adam’s did her research with federal funding. That information fits into this debate in a very interesting way.

            Also, do you really not realize that your claim that her findings are a suppressed and largely undiscovered panacea is entirely undermined by your claim that “almost every educator” has read, and still reads her and that “she’s the most famous education guru in the world”?

            Perhaps if someone had taught you the alphabet at an earlier age you would realize that both these claims can’t be true.

          • Greg G:

            You wrote, “According to the two top Amazon reviews Adam’s did her research with federal funding. That information fits into this debate in a very interesting way.

            “Also, do you really not realize that your claim that her findings are a suppressed and largely undiscovered panacea is entirely undermined by your claim that “almost every educator” has read, and still reads her and that “she’s the most famous education guru in the world”?

            “Perhaps if someone had taught you the alphabet at an earlier age you would realize that both these claims can’t be true.”

            Greg, it’s true that Adams has had some government connections; she’s helped shape NAEP standards, and been the lead writer for a congressionally mandated phonics study (“Learning to Read: thinking and learning about print”)

            But whether or not she is the world’s leading authority on early literacy education is something you should research online, or ask your wife about.

            I personally learned the alphabet very young, and skipped from the middle of kindergarten into first-grade because I could already read.

            I’ve personally tutored many “dyslexics”, and can assure you that they all were less than fluent in writing the alphabet by hand, as are many others I’m in contact with.

            But if you don’t want to believe it, there’s nothing else I can do.

          • Bob

            Greg’s question was about your mutually exclusive claims. Can you address that issue?

          • Ron H:

            You quoted me as writing,”Greg’s question was about your mutually exclusive claims. Can you address that issue?”

            Not being one to passively shrink from a debate, I’ll happily respond, but I don’t know which “mutually exclusive claims” you are talking about.

            Greg also wrote his wife did instill the ability to write the alphabet fluently into her students, but he also implied she had “dyslexic” students. He didn’t mention whether or not those kids could write the whole alphabet in 40 seconds or not, so I’m still in the dark.

          • Bob

            “Also, do you really not realize that your claim that her findings are a suppressed and largely undiscovered panacea is entirely undermined by your claim that “almost every educator” has read, and still reads her and that “she’s the most famous education guru in the world”?

            Perhaps if someone had taught you the alphabet at an earlier age you would realize that both these claims can’t be true.”

            “These claims” in the second paragraph refers to your contradictory claims in the paragraph above it. She can’t be BOTH relatively undiscovered and the most famous education guru in the world.

            In an entirely different comment, on a different day, I claimed that most of my wife’s students could write the alphabet by the end of kindergarten. I never claimed this included the dyslexic ones who were a small percentage of the total population.

          • Greg G,

            I recently met a retired third-grade teacher here in Georgia who didn’t believe me either. She said she had seem many kids who were dyslexic. I asked if those kids could write the alphabet at 40 letters per minute when they were in kindergarten (the current American average is 30 LPM, ensuring a 5% reading failure rate). She answered “I have no idea”. Well then, she, (as well as you and your wife) should have said, “I, then, really have no idea whether teaching them to handwrite fluently in K-1 would have prevented their problem or not.”

          • @Bob Rose
            > I recently met a retired third-grade teacher here in Georgia who didn’t believe me either.

            …Regarding what?

            > the current American average is 30 LPM (alphabet letters per minute writing rate), ensuring a 5% reading failure rate.

            How could a rate of writing alphabet letters have anything causative to do with reading comprehension, and why would Adams think variance in one causes variance in the other?

            > If African-American parents taught their children to write the alphabet before kindergarten, they’d do very well in school

            Maybe not. We tried that in several failed experiments already.

          • hitssquad,

            The retired third-grade teacher I met here in Georgia didn’t believe “that there is ‘no such thing’ as dyslexia”.

            I get that all the time. The concept is deeply ingrained in our culture, and it’s listed as a “mental disorder” in the DSM14.

            However, during WW1 hundreds of thousands British men were excused from military service because they had “neurasthenia”, an illness turning out not to exist. The fact that early handwriting fluency prevents reading problems will (in the future) put “dyslexia” into the same category.

          • hitssquad,

            You seem to be one of the many who believe that “dyslexia” actually exists. Well, it’s listed as a mental disorder by the American Psychiatric Society. I think we may safely assume that either it exists, or else it doesn’t. Educators find that 20% kids have difficulty learning to read and 5% are diagnosable as “dyslexic”.
            If teaching 1,000 kids in kindergarten to write the alphabet at 40 letters per minute teaches 1,000 kids to be good readers, then I believe that will be proof that “dyslexia” is actually just “dysteachea”.

          • @Bob Rose
            > If African-American parents taught their children to write the alphabet before kindergarten, they’d do very well in school

            > teaching 1,000 kids in kindergarten to write the alphabet at 40 letters per minute teaches 1,000 kids to be good readers

            Are you saying there’s no such thing as reading comprehension? Merely recognizing letters, to you, is all there is, and all there ever could be, to “reading”? Is that what you’re saying? Are you saying all kids have the same IQ?

          • hitssquad,

            You wrote, “Are you saying there’s no such thing as reading comprehension? Merely recognizing letters, to you, is all there is, and all there ever could be, to “reading”? Is that what you’re saying? Are you saying all kids have the same IQ?”

            Of course there is such a thing. Written text can’t be understood directly, contrary to popular belief. In order to understand all but the simplest written entities, we must “silently say” the text to ourselves, just as we do when handwriting or typing.
            So kids certainly can’t understand a written text that they wouldn’t understand if it were read TO them.

            But most kids here speak English well enough to do well in school and to read what they need to know.

            I personally think that intelligence (IQ) is diminished with physical brain disease or by malnutrition, but also that all races and nationalies are able to achieve enough intelligence to do well in school and in life, with appropriate parents and teachers. To think otherwise is racist.

          • @Bob Rose
            > all races and nationalies are able to achieve enough intelligence to do well in school and in life

            How does one “achieve” “intelligence”?

          • hitssquad,

            If you take an intelligence test, you’ll see that all of the questions are on topics you studied in school. All kids go to two schools; one in the brick building down the street; the other at the dinner table. Slavery and colonialism were based on the notion that some races are mentally superior to others. The idea that some people can learn to read and do well in school, while others can’t, is just as racist. Brain disease and psychiatric refusal to study are good reasons to be stupid, but otherwise human beings are human beings.

        • Ron H,

          Kids who are in SPED classes (which is avoided if kids can write the alphabet before K) have all sorts of other problems (arrests, illigitimacies, drug use, etc) so I assume that marijuana use is also on the list. One way or another, it’s very important for the country to know our schools aren’t teaching kids to handwrite well in K-1.

      • Yet the higher the IQ, the more alcohol consumed.Everyone I knew at the University of Chicago took some kind of drug and we all coud reed reel good. Including our last three dopers in chiefs:WJC, GWB, BHO.

      • Bob,

        —-”If African-American parents taught their children to write the alphabet before kindergarten, they’d do very well in school, and such kids are unlikely to take drugs.”

        Of course this still wouldn’t change the racial disparity in weed arrests since most white kids also can’t write the alphabet before kindergarten. Unless, God forbid, you are proposing some kind of preschool affirmative action.

        Of course, it is total nonsense that most kids entering second grade don’t know the alphabet but that won’t keep you from repeating it endlessly.

        • Greg G,

          You wrote, “Of course, it is total nonsense that most kids entering second grade don’t know the alphabet but that won’t keep you from repeating it endlessly.”

          Once again, I’ll say the same thing. Check out any “LD” kids in your district. ALL of them have trouble writing the alphabet by hand.

          • Greg,

            You are right that most American students are not labeled as “learning disabled”.

            But 5% of our 50,000,000 Americn students are. This number would be MUCH lower (or non-existent) if the schools would teach fluent handwriting in the early grades, no matter what their pay scale is.

    • Apparently for juandos the racial disparities in weed arrests are a feature, not a bug.

      And if you want to know why, well….

        • Paul

          The incomplete thought was meant to mimic the juandos style of argument as in:

          —”Well bob the problem in this particular is unsurprisingly piss poor reporting on the part of the New York Times….

          —Though blacks and whites may be committing the same drug crime on a fairly equal basis there still so many other factors come into play regarding drug busts but the NYT insists on playing the race card…”

          He can finish his own thought…or not.

      • Greg G,

        Someone here mentioned it’s “obvious” that intelligence varies by race. I certainly don’t think so, and anyone who does should talk to their Asian, Latino, or black friends.

  7. We should be concerned about the 4th largest donor since there is good evidence they also use their positions to assist the campaign.

    • I didn’t look with enough detail.

      US government is $4, but the State Department is #11 with DOJ and HHS at #19 and 20.

      Just summing those is 48% more than the largest donor listed. More than double the first private sector donor who came in #2.

  8. Greg G,

    A while back you wrote, ““These claims” in the second paragraph refers to your contradictory claims in the paragraph above it. She can’t be BOTH relatively undiscovered and the most famous education guru in the world.”

    One would think that anything Adams wrote would be a big best seller, but to my chagrin it isn’t true. Check out the amazon sales for her new book, and sales for the old one first publised in 1990.

    The media, journalists and politicians aren’t saying a word about this amazing story. I can only surmise that the TV and news media are afraid of offending three-million teachers union members, and the politicians are afraid of losing their votes.

    As far as her fame goes, check it out with a few educators!

      • Greg G,

        I think I can safely assume that I’m either right, or else I’m wrong. The truth can’t remain hidden forever. Some day someone will publish the results of teaching all K-1 kids to handwrite the alphabet fluently, and only then will we know.

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