Carpe Diem

Using White House claim of under-reporting, only 1 in 34 women at Ohio State are sexually assaulted, not 1 in 5

osuAs I reported recently on CD, Team Obama is now aggressively targeting campus sexual assaults with a new White House Task Force led by Joe Biden. It’s another example of a White House effort with the good intention to help women (and of course get their votes), but it’s a campaign that is based on wildly inaccurate, misleading, and false data about the frequency of campus sexual assaults.

In a January 2014 report titled “Rape and Sexual Assault: A Renewed Call to Action” (which led to the creation of the “Task Force to Protect Students From Sexual Assault” headed by Biden), the White House made the following two statements:

White House Statement 1. Sexual assault is a particular problem on college campuses:1 in 5 women has been sexually assaulted while in college.

White House Statement 2. Reporting rates for campus sexual assault are also very low: on average only 12% of student victims report the assault to law enforcement.

I reported previously that there’s a huge, irreconcilable problem here. If the second claim about under-reporting of campus sexual assault is even close to being accurate, it means that nowhere near 1 in 5 women are sexually assaulted while in college. As I reported in January on CD:

The problem is that the two sets of numbers the White House uses don’t work together. If you look at virtually any university in America and take the number of reported sexual assaults, and use that number in conjunction with the White House’s under-reporting percentage, you don’t get one-in-five. Nowhere near. Do the math yourself.

I’ve done the math using: a) the actual number of reported sexual assaults for several major college campuses and b) the White House under-reporting percentage of 12%, for the University of Wisconsin, the University of Michigan, and UC-Berkeley, and found that the number of college women who are sexually assaulted while in college is between 1 in 20 and 1 in 32. That’s still too high, but nowhere near 1 in 5.

Let’s do some more math using actual crime statistics from the Ohio State University (OSU) for the four years from 2009-2012 (data is here for 2010-2012 and here for 2009, and those data are summarized in the table above) and the White House’s under-reporting assumption of 12%. Over that four-year period, there were 98 reports of sexual assault on the OSU campus, in university residence halls, on nearby non-campus property, and on public property adjacent to campus. We’ll assume that 100% of the sexual assaults victims were female. Using the White House claim that only 12% of campus sexual assaults get reported, there would have been 719 unreported sexual assaults at OSU during that period, bringing the total number of sexual assaults (reported + unreported) to 817 (see table).

The Columbus campus of OSU has a total female student population of about 28,000. Dividing the 817 estimated sexual assaults over a four-year period by the 28,000 OSU female students would mean that only 2.92% of OSU women, or about 1 in 34, would be sexually assaulted while in college. Certainly that’s still too high, but not even close to the White House claim that one in five (and 20% of) female students are sexually assaulted while in college.

Bottom Line: Team Obama asked for a “renewed call to action” in its January 2014 report on rape and sexual assault. Just as important, I think we need a “renewed call” for the White House to stop spreading wildly exaggerated claims about important issues like campus sexual assault. From a political standpoint, using the totally implausible statistic that “1 in 5 women” are sexually assaulted while in college certainly gets a lot of attention. The “1 in 34” statistic found at Ohio State University (or the “1 in 20″ statistic previously reported for the University of Wisconsin), though not as attention-grabbing as “1 in 5,” are probably pretty representative of college campuses around the country and much closer to the truth than what the White House is claiming. Women attending college today, their parents, and society in general, are all much better served by the truth about college sexual assault than by Team Obama’s misleading, exaggerated, and false claims about “1 in 5 women will be sexually assaulted while in college.”

Update: Over at the Political Calculations blog, Ironman has created a neat app that simplifies the calculations above. You can input annual data on the actual number of reported sexual assaults at a given college, along with the estimated percentage of sexual assaults that are reported, the college student population and the percent female, etc. and you’ll get results for the percentage probability that a female student will be sexually assaulted while in college. Thanks to Ironman for doing that.

76 thoughts on “Using White House claim of under-reporting, only 1 in 34 women at Ohio State are sexually assaulted, not 1 in 5

  1. “White House Statement 1. Sexual assault is a particular problem on college campuses:1 in 5 women has been sexually assaulted while in college.”

    “White House Statement 2. Reporting rates for campus sexual assault are also very low: on average only 12% of student victims report the assault to law enforcement.”

    Well, if 1 in 5 women *report* being raped while in collage and the reporting rate is only 12% then it seems that on average every women who goes to college gets raped at least once, and some may be raped more than once.

    Or, if we assume – and it seems more likely – that most women aren’t raped while in college, then some considerable number may be raped as many as 100 to 150 times, but give up reporting it after the first few times.

    Obviously more study is needed. I propose that an additional $68 billion in tax dollars be set aside to fund anyone willing to study the problem.

    • Ron, you haven’t learnt a thing.

      This problem is much, much larger than you understand (see WH figures), at least ten times larger than you state, so your funding needs to be at least ten times as large.

      • So some women are raped between 1000 and 1500 times while they are in college?

        That IS a bigger problem than I thought. You’re right – I’ll ask for more money. Do you think $680 billion is enough? I don’t want to go back for more.

        I’m wondering, though, why any woman would go back to the same school after being raped 200-300 times in her first year. That’s more than once a day.

        • Your first step is to create a study group, comprised of interest group lobbyists, who can provide objective analysis and direction.

          Then, you should formulate a legislative action plan based on this objective analysis, that this problem could be thousands, if not millions of times worse, than your objective study says.

          Then, you should seek out insane pseudointellectuals on campus – anywhere will do, since they’re all pretty much on the same – to give your study credibility. Use of any minority studies, global warming experts and sustainability specialists will do. All are readily available.

          Your last step is to accept the Nobel, Emmy, Oscar, etc. awards for your efforts.

          That is how it is done.

          You, too, can make a difference ™ .

          • Thanks mesa.

            I will print out your commment so I can check off the bullet points as I “progress” (pun intended).

            I suspect I’ll have trouble with the very first item, unless you meant to enclose the word “objective” in quotes. I suspect that objective analysis may be hard to come by.

          • Ron, I would recommend consulting marmico for any biased data to suit your needs.

          • Oh Yeah! He’s a very reliable source of misinformation. I think I’m on my way.

            I’ll graciously acknowledge your invaluable assistance at the Nobel award ceremony.

            Thank you so much!

          • Anytime sir. Happy to help.

            Signed,

            Трофи́м Дени́сович Лысе́нко

          • The numbers is….not so important.

            What’s important is outcome, of Soviet supremacy in state prevention of aggressive capitalist assaults.

            Genetics is easy doorway to state domination of grain and human.

          • Genetics is easy doorway to state domination of grain and human.

            Of course. I recall that former USSR had a serious problem with aggressive grain species. It grew so well it was hard to find markets for all of it.

            I don’t recall genetics being the final solution though, if I remember correctly, reduced grain output was accomplished by starving 30 million peasants. Imports of grain could then be resumed.

          • So, George Will is now a PTSD denier, while deliberately picking one university to ‘prove’ a point about all of them. The idea is that the 12% reporting figure must be correct for Ohio State, which would mean that the 20% figure must be wrong. It is just as plausible that 1 in 5 may be accurate and the 12% figure could be high for Ohio State. And then, of course, there’s the likely possibility that neither figure applies to this one university out of over 4000 in the US; that tOSU is not representative. If George Will is concerned about intellectual dormancy, he may want to try looking at his own.

    • The fact that some women are sexually assaulted multiple times is well known. It may be reassuring to deny it, but it’s true. The assault that Will describes in his article is a good example of acquaintance rape that occurs in college. That Will refuses to acknowledge that no means no is just an example of why the Obama administration’s efforts are necessary.

    • OR–we can assume that all rapes against college women that are reported to police generally aren’t also reported by universities.

      Universities only track cases on campus or involving a perpetrator that was also a student.

  2. Dear Marm which is it you can’t read or you didn’t read the article? “The main Columbus campus of OSU has a student body of 57,466 students, of which approximately 50% are female. Dividing the 800 estimated sexual assaults over a four-year period by the 28,733 OSU female students would mean that only 2.78% of OSU women, or about 1 in 36, would be sexually assaulted while in college. Certainly that’s still too high, but not even close to the White House claim that one in five (and 20% of) female students are assaulted while in college.”

    • So, George Will is now a PTSD denier, while deliberately picking one university to ‘prove’ a point about all of them. The idea is that the 12% reporting figure must be correct for Ohio State, which would mean that the 20% figure must be wrong. It is just as plausible that 1 in 5 may be accurate and the 12% figure could be high for Ohio State. And then, of course, there’s the likely possibility that neither figure applies to this one university out of over 4000 in the US; that tOSU is not representative. Talk about intellectually dormant.

      • Besides Ohio State, I’ve confirmed similar findings for other universities including UC-Berkely, Univ. of Michigan, and Univ. of Wisconsin, etc. Pick any university, get their crime statistics for the last four years, and I’m confident you’ll find similar outcomes.

  3. The left has a great little scam going here.

    1. Lie
    2. Count on their media buddies/relatives to spread the lie
    3. Count on a miseducated (by them) populace to buy it.

    Works every time.

    • this is made all the more effective as it takes 3 seconds to spout a bunch of made up figures, and far longer to debunk them, so, buy the time your opposition has trotted out the math to show your up as a charlatan, you have already raised 7 new issues.

      it’s like trying to combat a geometric rise in river height with a linear rise in boundary wall, you just cannot keep up over time.

      politics are stacked against the honest and the assiduous.

  4. It is pretty obvious that the white house knows of the math errors, BUT it played well with focus groups and it gins up their base. If this issue gets knocked down there will be a new shinny object to worry about.

    The sad part of this is they are controlling the agenda. If this issue has legs then it says more about the MSM being in bed with the administration. Good reporting would have done the same math as Dr. Perry and laughed at the administration.

    This game is getting pretty old.

    • This is no game.

      What you are witnessing is the Orwellian transformation of our society into leftist mob rule.

      This is very, very deliberate, making suspects out of nearly everyone, and forcing restraint on individuals. Guilty until proven innocent.

      If you think this type of lie stops here, you’re in for a very nasty surprise.

      • “What you are witnessing is the Orwellian transformation of our society into leftist mob rule.”

        Orwell is a piker compared to the modern liberal.

  5. One other thing:

    If you read the White House report, you see that the 1 in 5 number comes from a study conducted in 2007. That study looked at just two public universities in the United States and relied on survey questions as opposed to actual crime data. Considering there are 4,140 colleges and universities in the US, it seems to me that looking at one report that covers just 0.05% of the college population, it seems like that is a poor justification for national policy.

    • I have just looked at the 2007 report and could not find which two public universities were surveyed. Does anyone know?

      Also, from section 6-2(p. 6-3) of the survey report is this statement:

      “One out of five undergraduate women experience an attempted or completed sexual assault since entering college.”

      So, what is attempted assault and how is this lumped into to the overall narrative of “1 in 5 women will be sexually assaulted in college”?

      Interesting that from the same page of the report they state:

      “forced sexual assaults were more likely to involve a black perpetrator, …

      Hmm, where is Joe Biden and the WH team on this?

      • I have just looked at the 2007 report and could not find which two public universities were surveyed. Does anyone know?

        They don’t say and probably never will.

        So, what is attempted assault and how is this lumped into to the overall narrative of “1 in 5 women will be sexually assaulted in college”?

        Say someone tried to rape a woman but she fights him off. That is attempted. I think it is good that it is included in this.

        • “Say someone tried to rape a woman but she fights him off. That is attempted. I think it is good that it is included in this.”

          Yes, I absolutely agree, but is not an attempted rape an assault, but attempted assault could be something else?

          For instance, “he tried to take my top off” an attempt, but “he tried to penetrate me” an attempt and assault?

          Maybe someone with legal knowledge in this area could clarify? Perhaps someone who is simply female might want to comment?

          • Maybe someone with legal knowledge in this area could clarify? Perhaps someone who is simply female might want to comment?

            Neither of which I am qualified for :-P

          • Maybe someone with legal knowledge in this area could clarify? Perhaps someone who is simply female might want to comment?

            I have neither legal knowledge nor am I a woman, but that won’t stop me from commenting. :)

            I think that if, in your example, some moron is trying to penetrate her by taking her top off, he has a lot to learn.

        • “Say someone tried to rape a woman but she fights him off. That is attempted. I think it is good that it is included in this.”

          agreed, but do we know what the survey questions and categorization buckets actually were?

          i have no idea, but if, for example, they included things like “undressed me with his eyes” or “clumsily hit on me at a campus bar but went way when i told him to beat it” or “made me feel uncomfortable” then we are into some very different territory.

          if the question is broad enough and includes “unwanted or uninvited sexual advances” well, hell, then i have been assaulted too.

          legally, assault is defined as follows:

          “assault is carried out by a threat of bodily harm coupled with an apparent, present ability to cause the harm”

          so, counter to common belief, assault does NOT require any physical contact just a perceived threat coupled with with a perceived ability to carry it out.

          this is much vaguer territory than one might suppose at first blush.

          rape is one of the most despicable crimes imaginable and i am all for preventing it, but these figures sounds fishy as hell to me.

          i would want a detailed look at the methodology they used, the phrasing of the questions, and what went into what bucket for stats.

          • Agreed, which is why I am pointing this out. To base so much on a single study is foolish.

  6. When one defines ‘sexual assault’ so broadly as to include ‘sex she regretted some weeks afterwards’, then yes, 1 in 5 women has experienced that.

    It seems colleges don’t want male students.

    It seems that Universities are doing the work of Udacity, Coursera, MITx, and Udemy for them. Universities need to implode in a cascade of creative destruction.

    • When one defines ‘sexual assault’ so broadly as to include ‘sex she regretted some weeks afterwards’, then yes, 1 in 5 women has experienced that.

      Why are you defining it like that?

  7. There are new age definitions of rape involved here. They include if a boyfriend convinces the girl to have sex but she really doesn’t want to and is going along just because.

    What is grossly underreported on campuses is male rape. The shame factor for men is much higher – so I would believe that only 12% of men who get raped actually report.

    • They include if a boyfriend convinces the girl to have sex but she really doesn’t want to and is going along just because.

      As they should

        • I’m unmarried. And if I asked a girlfriend for sex and she said no, that was the end of it.

          Rape is unwanted sex and coercion is coercion, no matter how you frame it.

          • jon-

            well, yes and no.

            have sex with me or i will beat you senseless is a very serious threat. have sex with me or i might be a little sulky later is quite different.

            i mean, we all sometimes do things we would not have preferred to have done because someone we care about asked us to.

            backrubs, not singing so loudly in the shower, going to the ballet, putting the toilet seat down, whatever.

            one might not even know one had “coerced” sex. you ask, they say yes, but you do not realize it is not because they were in the mood but rather because they valued making you happy.

            absolutely, in the end, no means no, but there is a bit of gray here (perhaps not 50 shades, but…)

          • absolutely, in the end, no means no, but there is a bit of gray here (perhaps not 50 shades, but…)

            At least 49

          • Hmm, I wrote a more detailed response to you and it disappeared. I’ll try it again.

            If you asked your girlfriend for sex, and she says no. Then you say, come on honey, please, I just want to show how much I love you, and then she “relents” (basically says yes) that is not rape by any sense of the law, but the new feminist idea is that it is rape.

            Another harsher example. Girlfriend says no, and you say, if you don’t have sex with me I will leave you, She relents and agrees. Again, not rape, but considered so by people who do such research.

            Yet another, Girlfriend says no, you say, come on honey, if you do, I’ll take you to your favorite restaurant, she relents and agrees.

            These are all examples of the 88% that are not reported. They changed the definition of rape. It is still not rape legally, but I think these same folks are trying to get it made illegal to try to change a girls mind, and negotiate.

            Basically if the girl doesn’t want to do it for the simple case of lust, then it is “rape.” Interestingly though, this is an extremely male perception of sex. For women they have sex for many reasons, other than lust.

            Women are much more calculating and will do it if they perceive it will give them some advantage. Keep the boyfriend who is paying the rent. Try to catch the guy who has a lot of status, or money, etc.

            As to your comment below, – she says “I don’t know, or no” – and you just give up? You are nerdier than I was when I was your age. You butter her up and tell her how hot she is and try at least one more time.

            BTW what would you do if she said, “I am not sure?” (by the way, getting some on a not sure is also new age rape)

          • If you asked your girlfriend for sex, and she says no. Then you say, come on honey, please, I just want to show how much I love you, and then she “relents” (basically says yes) that is not rape by any sense of the law,

            Depends. If she feels pressured into it, then it still is rape.

            Regardless, such a thing is really a scummy thing to do. “no” should be the end of the conversation. Sex is an expression of love between to people. If you have to beg for it and guilt the other person into it, then 1) there’s a relationship problem and 2) there is no love.

          • morg

            one might not even know one had “coerced” sex. you ask, they say yes, but you do not realize it is not because they were in the mood but rather because they valued making you happy.

            Yes, many shades of gray. I would have trouble calling sex “coerced” unless it was against the other party’s will, or under threat.

    • Another new age rape is “regret rape” – you were really into it the night before but next day feel like you shouldn’t have. Yes the feminists call this rape now.

      So really the underreported is probably mostly cases of women who didn’t think they were raped but were convinced to answer yes when read the very loose definition.

  8. I blame global warming, and things are only going to get worse:

    “… Using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s warming projections, Ranson calculated that from 2010 to 2099, climate change will “cause” an additional “22,000 murders, 180,000 cases of rape, 1.2 million aggravated assaults, 2.3 million simple assaults, 260,000 robberies, 1.3 million burglaries, 2.2 million cases of larceny, and 580,000 cases of vehicle theft” in the United States. — Study: Global Warming Will Cause 180,000 More Rapes by 2099‏, Mother Jones

    • Study: Global Warming Will Cause 180,000 More Rapes by 2099‏, Mother Jones

      LOL

      It must be the stress caused by knowing one’s life will end in a fiery hell of their own making and that no one else is willing to give up their electric lights and cars and return to the Stone Age to prevent this catastrophe, no matter how loudly one bleats about it and tears their hair.

      It drives some people bonkers, and they resort to violence.

  9. The reported rape figures put the lie to the 1-4, 1-5 assertions:

    “At the University of Pittsburgh, there are roughly 14,800 female students. If their chances of being sexually assaulted are 1-in-4, there should be about 3,700 sexual assaults each year. In 2009, the most recent year for which full statistics are available, Pitt students reported 4. At Carnegie Mellon University, there are roughly 3,900 female students. If their chances of being sexually assaulted are 1-in-4, there should be about 975 sexual assaults each year. In 2009, CMU reported 6. (That figure was a three-year high.) At Duquesne University, there are roughly 5,700 female students. If their chances of being sexually assaulted are 1-in-4, there should be about 1,425 sexual assaults each year. In 2009, Duquesne reported 3.” — Community Voices

  10. “[If true,] the one-in-four statistic would mean that every year, millions of young women graduate who have suffered the most terrifying assault, short of murder, that a woman can experience. Such a crime wave would require nothing less than a state of emergency — Take Back the Night rallies and 24-hour hotlines would hardly be adequate to counter this tsunami of sexual violence. Admissions policies letting in tens of thousands of vicious criminals would require a complete revision, perhaps banning boys entirely. The nation’s nearly 10 million female undergrads would need to take the most stringent safety precautions. Certainly, they would have to alter their sexual behavior radically to avoid falling prey to the rape epidemic. None of this crisis response occurs, of course — because the crisis doesn’t exist.” — Heather Mac Donald, City Journal

    • Here’s a really simple precaution,

      http://www.nrawomen.tv/

      You try anything funny with my wife or daughter, you’d better be armed.

      You try anything funny while I’m there with them, you’d better be very, very well armed.

      • Here’s a really simple precaution,

        Well of course, but most college campuses are “gun free zones”.

        We know that’s true because those scofflaws who brazenly bring guns onto campus anyway – despite the serious frowns they attract from school authorities – and begin shooting people, are free to do so for the 6 to 10 minutes it takes local armed police to arrive.

        Besides that, there’s the strange notion that a woman found raped and strangled with her own pantyhose is morally superior to the one explaining to police how her assailant got that fatal bullet wound.

  11. Mark,

    The study says that one in five *women* (not all students) has been sexually assaulted *since starting college.* The one in 12 number is the number of *rapes* that are reported to any law enforcement, not the number of rapes that are reported to the campus. Even fewer sexual assaults are reported to law enforcement, and few of either category can be reported to a college, because colleges only track those involving two students or those committed on campus. Your math in no way refutes the research findings and you should issue an immediate retraction.

    • I don’t think that’s accurate. From the White House Report on p. 18: “Reporting rates for campus sexual assault are also very low: on average only 12% of student victims report the assault to law enforcement.”

  12. Your 12% reporting rate is only referring to “physically forced sexual assault victims”, but from the original study, the reporting rate for victims of “incapacitated sexual assault” is only 2%. See page 18 of the Campus Sexual Assault study that the White House report is based on: https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/221153.pdf

    So if we include incapacitated sexual assault, your numbers are off by a factor of 6. Your 2.92% “debunking” turns into 17.52%, pretty close to 20%. Do you have any response to that? I’m sure many of your extremely misogynistic commenters will contend “no one forced them to get incapacitated, so it’s not really rape!”.

    • Good point. Recent studies have shown that rapists seek out women who are incapacitated or deliberately work to get them incapacitated. That way they’re easier to rape.

    • Ichabod, in fact the two statistics Dr. Perry compares come from two different studies altogether. The 1 in 5 (actually 19%) statistic comes from the report you link to. Importantly, it’s not a measure of rape prevalence. This studies category of “sexual assault” includes not only rape but also sexual battery, and includes both attempted and completed assaults.

      As you point out, the same study also talks about reporting rates – but the reporting rate figures refer only to completed assaults, and so cannot be directly compared to the 1 in 5 number.

      The 12% “on average” statistic, according to a footnote in the White House report, comes from “Drug-facilitated, Incapacitated, and Forcible Rape: A National Study” by Kilpatrick et all, which only counted completed rapes. They found that about 11.5% of college women reported having been raped at some time in their life, while 5% of female college students reported being raped sometime in the previous year. (However, not all of those 5% of rapes would have taken place on campus.)

      So the comparison made by Dr. Perry is. to put it mildly, invalid. He’s taking a prevalence number that includes sexual battery and rape, completed and attempted, and mathematically comparing it to a “reported to authorities” number from a different study entirely referring exclusively to completed rapes.

      Dr. Perry’s numbers have other problems. Even if we assume that the report he links to includes all reported rapes known to campus authorities, that doesn’t mean it includes all the rapes it would need to for Dr. Perry’s comparison to be valid, because most rapes of students take place off-campus, and would not have been included in the report Perry took his numbers from (which only included a very limited number of off-campus locations).

      To be sure, the White House report is sloppy; it uses the term “sexual assault” to refer to statistics from two different reports which technically aren’t measuring the same thing. Dr. Perry was apparently fooled by that sloppiness. However, simply following the footnotes and reading the reports should have cleared up any confusion.

      Dr. Perry, it seems to me that your numbers are indefensible. Your math directly compares statistics that are not at all measuring the same thing, and your data source for comparison is one that might exclude half or more of rapes reported to authorities. Am I missing something?

  13. Marmelstein, “Incapacitated sexual assault” is not rape. It’s a drunken hookup, and it’s what a college party is all about: Guys trying to get into girls’ pants, girls are flirting, and everyone is drinking; excess alcohol consumption causes ‘blackouts’ and of course people don’t remember what happened the night before.

    There’s a reason for the extremely low reporting rate of 2%: No one reports it because they don’t feel it’s a crime, and it isn’t (I know some statutes include “mental incapacitation” in them, but when these type of “cases” made it to court, where the self-incapacitation is brought about by alcohol, they are tossed out by the prosecution.)

    If drunken hookups were “rape”, every college graduate would be on the sex offender registry.

    If you want to outlaw seduction, college parties, alcohol on campus, and drunken hookups, just come out and say it. But rape is rape, and that ain’t it. Rape is “physically forced” sex, the 12%.

    Read that City Journal article by Heather Mac Donald from 2008 that is linked to above, and see which really compares to YOUR college experience: the way the article posits it, or the 1-in-4 bull. You’ll see how you’re just being fed propaganda.

    • The study captured intoxication when the victim was too drunk to control her behavior or was passed out. Sexual penetration of a person that cannot consent due to intoxication is illegal in college or out. If you have done that, you are in fact a rapist. This is exactly why the statistics are so high.

      “Unwanted sexual act involving oral, anal or vaginal penetration that occurs after the victim voluntarily uses drugs or alcohol. The victim is passed out or awake but too drunk or high to know what she is doing or
      to control her behavior.”

  14. The author is making two obvious assumptions here:

    1) The 12% reporting figure is correct.
    2) The records of law enforcement agencies on reported sexual assaults accurately reflect reality.

    Why? The 20% and 12% figures come from interviews of the same women. How can you imply the interviewees aren’t trustworthy enough to answer whether or not they’ve been assaulted but are credible when they tell us whether or not they reported it?

  15. The 12% unreported figure seems flawed also. The Bureau of Justice’s NCVS reports that at least half of sexual assaults are reported to police. The Bureau even done a study years ago (I think 2004) showing that unreported sexual assaults are actually higher for non-university populations than university ones.

    Moreover, a reported sexual assault is not a sexual assault. Half of those those sexual assaults reported to police do not lead to a conviction. Of course that doesn’t mean there was no sexual assault if the accused wasn’t convicted, but it doesn’t mean there was one either. Also factor in the number of unfounded accusations which some are false accusations.

    Moreover, the survey used here to get the 1 in 5 result has been so deviously manipulated to get the inflated numbers it desires that is absolutely criminal and so without merit that assigning it the label “junk science” would be too complimentary.

    I would imagine it would be very easy to get high numbers from sexual assault victimization surveys on university campuses as freshmen are inundated from the beginning on the all encompassing bastardized definition of sexual assault that modern day universities proffer. “Stare rape”; “Drunk sex=rape”; etc… The students have internalized these inane definitions of sexual assault.

  16. >> 12% of student victims report the assault to law enforcement.

    While the administration makes the statement above regarding law enforcement, Mr Perry and George Will study the reports to a university rather than to law enforcement – and draw their conclusions by mixing the statements with the different places that sexual assaults were reported.

    Apples and oranges

  17. I have no doubt that Dr. Perry is an able economist, but perhaps he should not have cut English class so often. “In college” does not mean the same thing as “on campus”, or even the same thing as “under circumstances that would show up on a school’s crime report”.

    Dr. Perry failed to take the time to understand what is and is not included in a school’s mandated crime report under the Clery Act. The requirements are spelled out at 20 USC 1092(f)(6). Really, it doesn’t require a law degree to understand; a basic grasp of the English language suffices. Anything that happens on campus, or in a building owned or operated by the school and used by students, must be reported. Anything that happens on public property directly adjacent to the above must be reported. Anything that happens on property owned or operated by an affiliated organziation such as a fraternity must be reported. For just how broad the “adjacent to” requirement is (not very), see page 20 of:

    http://rems.ed.gov/docs/ED_CampusSafetyAndSecurityReportingHandbook.pdf

    In a private apartment building, home, shopping center parking garage, or city-owned park not directly adjacent to or across the street from the school? Not required to appear in the school’s report.

    According to US News and World Report’s college review, 75% of OSU students live off-campus. In this case, off-campus ONLY means private homes and apartments, and does NOT include frats/sororities that are subject to Clery Act reporting. If the rapes occur in the same proportions, then the true number of rapes of OSU students while “in college” (again, this does not mean “on campus”) would be four times the number contained in the OSU report.

    Granted, there is no reason to assume that the likelihood of sexual assault on campus and off is the same. Then again, it might be _higher_ off-campus, in which case the OSU reports would contain an even smaller fraction of the actual number of rapes experienced by female OSU students while “in college” (not just “on campus”).

    Dr. Perry is trying to compare two numbers with different definitions: rapes that occur to women “in college” (regardless of location) vs. only those rapes that occur in a location subject to the reporting requirements of the Clery Act. These numbers have no necessary relation to one another. Therefore his calculations based on those numbers are completely meaningless and prove precisely nothing about the validity of the administration’s claims.

  18. Very good point, Michael.

    You wrote “Granted, there is no reason to assume that the likelihood of sexual assault on campus and off is the same. Then again, it might be _higher_ off-campus…”

    Indeed, the Campus Sexual Assault study itself – the source of the “1 in 5″ statistic – reports that 61-63% of sexual assaults took place off campus. This is similar to what other studies have found (for instance, this government study found that 66% of rapes of college women took place off campus).

    It seems likely that OSU – with its higher-than-average proportion of students living off-campus – would also have a higher-than-average proportion of sexual assaults occurring off campus.

  19. The Left–liberals, democrats, environmentalists, feminists, unions, academia, Hollywood, etc.–only lie, 100% of the time, no exceptions.

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