Pethokoukis

Here’s the can’t miss formula I used to nail the November jobs report

The US economy added 203,000 net new payrolls last month. And before the report came out at 8:30 ET this morning from the BLS, here was my official guess:

120613nfp

Pretty good, right? Basically, I nailed it. Did I get lucky? Nope. It was the math and the science. But I am not greedy. Here is my can’t miss formula for predicting the monthly jobs numbers:

1. Find the increase in nominal blended GDP (gross domestic product) and GDI (gross domestic income) the past two months.

2. Multiply that number by the monthly US trade deficit.

3. Divide that total by the quarterly increase in S&P 500 domestic profits.

3. Divided that result by Peyton Manning’s current QB rating.

4. From that result, subtract the total number of Obamacare signups (both state and federal exchanges).

5. Multiply that total by the number of NBA playoff games Derrick Rose is likely to play this year.

6. Add that result to the average of the past three monthly jobs reports.

And there you go! My prediction for 202,000 jobs!

5 thoughts on “Here’s the can’t miss formula I used to nail the November jobs report

  1. Juandos never showed up last month, when 507,000 government jobs were lost. But juandos shows up this month when 338,000 government jobs were gained.

    Of course, juandos wouldn’t know that on a year over year basis, government jobs are down 534,000.

    Juandos has absolutely zero insight with her arithmetic.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>