The US economy added 203,000 net new payrolls last month. And before the report came out at 8:30 ET this morning from the BLS, here was my official guess:
Pretty good, right? Basically, I nailed it. Did I get lucky? Nope. It was the math and the science. But I am not greedy. Here is my can’t miss formula for predicting the monthly jobs numbers:
1. Find the increase in nominal blended GDP (gross domestic product) and GDI (gross domestic income) the past two months.
2. Multiply that number by the monthly US trade deficit.
3. Divide that total by the quarterly increase in S&P 500 domestic profits.
3. Divided that result by Peyton Manning’s current QB rating.
4. From that result, subtract the total number of Obamacare signups (both state and federal exchanges).
5. Multiply that total by the number of NBA playoff games Derrick Rose is likely to play this year.
6. Add that result to the average of the past three monthly jobs reports.
And there you go! My prediction for 202,000 jobs!