Economics, Health Care

Just how many Americans will really have their health insurance affected by Obamacare?

Current employer-sponsored insurance plans under Obamacare

Jonathan Gruber, an Obamacare architect, claims that 80% of the population – mostly those with employer-sponsored health insurance coverage—will be “unaffected by Obamacare.” AEI economist Stan Veuger disagrees: “The only people who are certainly completely unaffected are those whose plans will be ‘grandfathered’ into Obamacare. By the administration’s own estimates, only half of those with employer plans fall into this category even now. Many non-grandfathered plans, especially in the small-group market, will be affected significantly”

AEI’s Scott Gottlieb, a former senior adviser to the Centers on Medicare and Medicaid Services, says “Starting in October 2014, many employees of small businesses will start getting the same notices that are now being mailed to individuals, informing [them] that their existing health plans are also being cancelled.” Small business owners will be faced with two options: “Find another policy that’s compliant with Obamacare, but [with up to 50% higher premiums]. Or put their employees into the Obamacare exchange.”

So what do the numbers look like? Based on the administration’s own estimates from 2010, Veuger projects that tens of millions of people with employer-based insurance policies will be ‘affected’ by Obamacare, their plans either modified or cancelled. A far cry from Professor’s Gruber’s claim that only 9 million Americans, “three per cent of the population, will have to buy a new product that complies with the A.C.A.’s more stringent requirements for individual plans.”

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