Pethokoukis, Economics, U.S. Economy

US has 13 million more people since 2007 — and 3.2 million fewer jobs

Some economic perspective on the labor market from JPMorgan economist James Glassman:

It’s going to be a while, perhaps the balance of this decade for the US economy to recover to its natural, fully-employed state. Businesses have replaced or recovered 63 percent of the nonfarm payroll jobs that were lost during the recession and the job count is only 3,200,000 shy of the December 2007 peak number of jobs. Household employment is even better. It has recovered 79 percent of the losses and is only 1,600,000 shy of the all-time peak employment count. Nonetheless, the US population has increased by 13,700,000 since the December 2007 business cycle peak and the labor force by 3,700,000 even though a massive number of discouraged workers temporarily dropped out. So, another 5 to 7 million new jobs would need to be created at this moment just to return the economy to a fully-employed state. Of course, that is above and beyond the 1,500,000 new jobs needed every year going forward to accommodate new job seekers. From that perspective, the job market is in the fourth inning of recovery.

8 thoughts on “US has 13 million more people since 2007 — and 3.2 million fewer jobs

  1. From that perspective, the job market is in the fourth inning of recovery.

    How optimistic. The job market is trailing by seven with two out in the ninth with the bases empty and A-Rod looking at an 0-2 count. The lousy investments have to be liquidated before a real recovery can begin.

  2. So JPM says that 5-7 million “catch up” jobs need to be created. But the Hamilton Project, who you are beholden to charting, says that 11 million “catch up” jobs need to be created.

    What gives?

  3. No fear. Recovery Summer IV (or is it V?) is almost here.

    I fear. No private sector jobs (payroll survey) were created during the Bush43 administration. Well, actually it was a loss of 665,000 private sector jobs. Thus far, 1,913,000 jobs have been created during the first half of the Obama administration. I have no idea what will happen in the second half.

    For whatever reasons, there has been limited traction in private sector job creation since the turn of the millenium.

    • The reason is pretty clear. The boom the supplysiders fueled was in China, India and Brazil. And what money was spent here went to automation and Internet commerce. Things looked half way decent until the construction boom blew up. (Difficult to offshore or automate construction.)

    • Your comment is looney. In Obama’s 4 years over EIGHT MILLION workers who have become discouraged and who’s benefits have expired, have so called “Dropped out of the workforce” and are no longer counted. Actual unemployment is at an 80 year high of almost 20%. 15 million jobs have been lost and 1.9 million burger flipping jobs created in 4 years. Being an Obama Zombie is a shame.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>