I know the stock market likes to climb a wall of worry, but perhaps that’s not true at the moment. Less concern about the euro and perhaps less concern about the US economy could be boosting investor sentiment. From Economist James Hamilton via the Atlanta Fed:
The GDP-based recession indicator index is a pattern-recognition algorithm that assigns dates to when recessions begin and end. It is based on the observed dynamics of U.S. real GDP growth. …U.S. real GDP growth has increased modestly each quarter since 2009:Q3 up through 2012:Q3, though the growth has been persistently sluggish. Although the slow growth has been disappointing, the index currently stands at 8.2 percent. This means that the U.S. economy would not be characterized as currently being in a recession. The BEA’s initial estimate that real GDP fell slightly in 2012:Q4 is factored into this assessment, but turns out not to change the inference about 2012:Q3 materially.