Pethokoukis, Politics and Public Opinion

President Hillary? | If this economic forecast is correct, the Democrats will be tough to beat in 2016

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JPMorgan Chase economist James Glassman offers a pretty upbeat forecast for 2013:

Private forecasts tend to predict more of the same slow growth in 2013. Many Fed policy makers apparently agree with that prediction.

Instead, the economy is likely to speed up in 2013, to 3 percent or more, and expand even faster in 2014. Many sectors are doing well. The handful of factors that have retarded the recovery are passing into history. The popular financial-speculation-begets-slow story is no longer interesting or useful. Europe’s crisis that stalled the region is under control. The unwind of 2009 US fiscal stimulus initiatives is passing. The real estate nightmare is over. Tail winds from easy Fed policies continue to build.

Near term, the rise in payroll taxes will slow consumers but recoveries from Superstorm Sandy and summer 2012 droughts and the $1.2 trillion of capital gains created by the stock market’s January surge will help. Further out there are many reasons to be hopeful.

Unemployment trends will give clues to the Fed policy outlook for now. The quiet and little-talked-about drop in inflation below the central bank’s 2 percent long-run goal has the final say.

But that’s just the beginning of the good news, according to the above chart (modified by me for clarity) from Glassman. He sees unemployment continuing to improve along with GDP growth that the US hasn’t seen since the fat part of the 1990s. Not only would that boost incomes but would also sharply lower budget deficits. Not exactly Morning in America, but a strong superficial case for a “third term” for Obamanomics.

14 thoughts on “President Hillary? | If this economic forecast is correct, the Democrats will be tough to beat in 2016

    • Yes, quite right. Republicans are chomping at the bit, desperate for a total collapse of the US economy, because that’s the only way they’ll retake the White House.

      It surely has nothing at all to do with the constant and perennial concept of ‘Bad news for the incumbent equals good politics for the opposition’ which can be traced back through Democrats under Bush, Republicans under Clinton, Democrats under Bush and Reagan, Republicans under Carter, Democrats under Ford and Nixon, Republicans under Johnson and Kennedy, etc. ad nauseum.

      Nope, just greedy and destructive GOP of 2013 who are willing to ruin the country just to regain power…

    • “Interesting viewpoint that the only way the GOP can win is if the economy tanks under Obama…”

      As opposed to now where he’s got it roaring on all cylinders.

      • re: ” As opposed to now where he’s got it roaring on all cylinders.”

        heck no.. it’s sputtering for sure but the GOP perspective seems to be that it needs to get even worse if they are to have a chance!

  1. Oh, now see? I so respect your opinion but we don’t even have any LEADERS right now so how can we project 2016? Dear GOD, anything can happen. If I didn’t know who wrote it, I’d view it as disinformation.

    And part of the psychology of what’s happening here is that people are more dependent on government largesse because of the stagnancy (or worse) of the economy. If the economy improves, the mood improves. What’s more, the profligate spending and printing of money has to stop at some point. What happens then?

    What’s more dangerous, IMHO, is the cult-like following that Hillary also is developing. Once that solidifies, we’re back to Obamabot territory.

    • “What’s more dangerous, IMHO, is the cult-like following that Hillary also is developing. Once that solidifies, we’re back to Obamabot territory.”

      Her cult-like following is growing because she lost the nomination and wasn’t able to implement the same poisonous policies as Obama. If Obama had lost, he’d be the cult figure now.

      • I think right now – any GOP that could win the Presidency would not satisfy the base – and conversely, someone the base likes cannot win the Presidency.

        how about it?

        • I doubt any GOP candidate could win the Presidency now. The demographic changes have tipped the balance in favor of Democrats. Takers > Makers.

          • “Colin Powell, Chris Christie, Jeb Bush? Bobby Jindal?”

            Powell is a low life race baiter kinda like you. None of the other guys you mention can win either.

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