Pethokoukis, Politics and Public Opinion

New GDP report shows economy may have sealed the deal for Obama campaign

Image Credit: Barack Obama Flickr stream

Image Credit: Barack Obama Flickr stream

For all the talk about Team Obama’s amazing campaign machine, it sure didn’t hurt that the economy turned in a pretty solid performance in the the third quarter.

The Commerce Department has upwardly revised third-quarter real GDP to 3.1% from a previously reported 2.7%. That makes the third quarter the strongest quarter of the year and the third strongest of the economic recovery that started in summer 2009. Indeed, on a nominal GDP basis, at 5.9% it was the strongest quarter of the recovery.

Also note that the unemployment rate fell sharply in the months leading up to the election, from 8.3% in July to 7.9% in October (which was reported just before Election Day.

The econ team at RDQ Economics thinks the strong report should cause the Fed to call off the dogs:

The average growth rate thus far this year, at 2.1%, is running ahead of the Fed’s most recent forecast of growth for 2012 (which was a central tendency of 1.7%-1.8%).  Nominal GDP growth in the third quarter was 5.9% as GDP price inflation ran at 2.7%.  The Fed has no business continuing to ease if this is anywhere close to the true growth rate in nominal GDP (but again, the 4.3% growth rate over the last year is probably a better gauge of the trend).

With the output and jobs gaps still so huge? I dunno …

6 thoughts on “New GDP report shows economy may have sealed the deal for Obama campaign

  1. I don’t think so either.

    For 1984–all four quarters–GDP gained 7.2%, more than twice the puny 3.1% single quarter gain just reported. The latest quarterly report didn’t even move the needle for the vast majority of Americans. And they were right, Q4 might be up about half the Q3 rate.

  2. If we discard voter fraud, Obama had spread around close to a Trillion $’s to his get out the vote crony friends plus the Federal Reserve has monetized many trillions to juice the economy plus all the illegal campaign contributions from the We are the World lefty’s. BTW when have any of the Treasury/Labor Dept stats ever been accurate!

  3. You spent every day leading up to the election trashing the economy. Now that Obama has won, it turns out it wasn’t so bad after all, and it was just luck.

    You can’t have it both ways.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>