Economist Regis Barnichon is the co-developer of a model to forecast unemployment based on labor force flows—the number of workers moving into and out of unemployment each month. And the November unemployment report didn’t do much for him (text and chart via … read more >

Let’s keep it simple. For the past three decades, US private sector jobs have grown by about 1.8%-2.0% a year. But that’s not been happening since the Great Recession. Private sector jobs fell sharply in 2008 and 2009. And in … read more >

Good stuff as always from Matt McDonald and the HPS analysis team. A couple of points: 1. Note that HPS puts the demographically-adjusted unemployment rate at 9.7%. The way I calculate it, the rate could be anywhere between 9.2% and … read more >