Pethokoukis

My 2012 electoral vote map and popular vote predictions

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Based on both polls and reporting, my best guess is that Mitt Romney will be elected the 45th President of the United States, winning the two-party popular vote 51% to 49% and the electoral vote by 301 to 237 for President Obama.

There is some upside potential here for Romney, especially in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. The bounce from superstorm Sandy is fading, though it may be enough to get Obama N.H in the Northeast where the president has surged, distorting the top-line numbers in some recent national polls.

Many pollsters are not catching the stratospheric GOP enthusiasm, particularly among voters of faith, in voting for Romney and Paul Ryan — not just against Obama and Joe Biden. In this way, the Bush-Kerry parallel from 2004 does not hold up. (Oh, and think twice before betting against Michael Barone when elections are on the line.) So there you go.

34 thoughts on “My 2012 electoral vote map and popular vote predictions

  1. Reply to thor1 -
    50 years & what do have to show “nothing” “nada” “zero” except the word”no”, Please, I dont care if it was around 100 years because your teaparty was 5 generations of zip. POWER FORWARD. (rip teaparty)

  2. shows with an exclaimation of how you and you’re extremist conservative base are so out of touch. I consider myself an Eisenhower centrist which would be considered very liberal by today’s standards.

    1) The change many years ago decreasing capital gains tax rates way below the marginal max tax rate fostered carpetbagging speculation vs long-term investment. Years ago, when capital budgeting manager for a large corporation in my mid-twenties, that change had a reverse impact to normal NPV’s, IRR’s and paybacks during a declining period of interest rates. The Wall Street investor mantra became “I don’t give a rat’s ass what my company’s R&D is doing for the company 5+ years, I want instant gratification.” Wall Street won over Main St. with R&D expeditures axed nationwide as unnecessary overhead. This was the lifeblood of our economic expansion of last century: innovation, requiring highly skilled labor force, and ultimately when products mature, it goes to cheaper labor sources. Your party fosters specuation over innovation when you cater to the 1% benefiting from 80% of total capital gains and .1% of 50%. These are comodity-managing, wall street vs main st. wealth, not the Bill Gates’s of yesteryear. Change captail gains to same as regular tax rates, provide stimulis for new business incubation and tax breaks for long-term R&D to bring us back to prior equilibrium.

    2. Patriotism has changed from love and devotion to one’s country to that of required military service today. Martin Luther King Jr. was a patriot, Oliver North was not. Eisenhower was dead-on is his warning of the growing industrial military complex as the greatest threat to our future democracy. We should not be spending one-half of the world’s military expenditures, once up to 8% of our GDP. That’s CRAZY, and we are in a resurgence of a Joe McCarthy-like scare towards terrorism form threats caused by our own miscue actions (we empowered the autocratic nutcases of Bin-Laden, Norriega, Saddam Hussein, Marcos, overthrew a democratically-elected prime minister and put the tyrant Shah in power, Mubarek, and more). Short term strategic decisions without knowledge of cultural anthropology-typical military “intelligence”-an oxymoron.

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