Recall all the eyebrows that were raised last month at the huge jump, nearly 900,000 jobs — in the September household jobs survey conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The last time the economy added that many, it was growing at a white-hot 9.3% — not 2%. And it was way out of line with the more well known payroll survey.
The results led Gallup’s chief economist to say that the “household results should be discounted. … The obvious conclusion is that a new employment measure is needed.”
But in October we had another mega-month, at least according to that survey. Household employment jumped 410,000. Here is the economics team of John Ryding
Conrad DeQuadros at RDQ Economics:
The economic data for October continue to be relatively upbeat as the gain in payrolls and the upward revision to employment growth in the prior two months put the level of payrolls in October some 255,000 above the previously reported level for September. The employment gains in the household survey (about 1.3 million over the last two months) are implausibly high and we still expect to see an eight-handle on the unemployment rate again before the end of the year.
Translation: Unemployment is headed back to the 8% level after the election.