Politics and Public Opinion, Elections

Election night live–Update: Obama wins

Image Credit: DonkeyHotey (Flickr) (CC BY-SA 2.0)

Image Credit: DonkeyHotey (Flickr) (CC BY-SA 2.0)

President Obama has been reelected.

Signing off for the night, folks. President Obama has secured enough electoral votes to win reelection. He also looks likely to take Florida and quite possibly Virginia as well. Tomorrow the post-election reflections begin!

Election night 2012 is finally here. Apologies for the limited nature of the post: I’m having issues with connectivity. Results at the top of the post, news and analysis below.

Here’s how the states are panning out

Projected Romney wins:

203 Electoral Votes

Idaho
North Carolina
Missouri
Arizona
Montana
Utah
Kansas
Louisiana
Nebraska
Texas
North Dakota
South Dakota
Wyoming
Alabama
West Virginia
Indiana
Kentucky
South Carolina
Oklahoma
Georgia
Arkansas
Tennessee
Mississippi

Projected Obama wins:

284 Electoral Votes

Colorado
Ohio
Iowa
Oregon
California
Hawaii
Washington
Minnesota
New Hampshire
Wisconsin
New Mexico
Pennsylvania
Michigan
New York
New Jersey
Vermont
Connecticut
Delaware
D.C.
Illinois
Maryland
Massachusetts
Maine
Rhode Island

 

NBC and Fox have called Ohio for Obama. This election is almost over, with President Obama on the cusp of reelection.

It is now mathematically impossible for the Republicans to retake the Senate. The Democrats have won the following races thus far:

Connecticut
Delaware
Florida
Indiana
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri
New Jersey
New York
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Vermont
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Virginia

That puts the Democrats at 47 seats, and they’ve picked up 2 GOP seats as well. Despite the fact that they were defenseats far more seats than the Republicans, the Democrats look set to expand their majority.

Check out the Washington Post’s exit polling results here. You can see how certain groups shifted in relation to 2008.

Are we going to see an incumbent election? As Democrats continue to win Senate seats, they are increasingly likely to hold on to the chamber. Republicans will hold the House, so if Preisent Obama is reelected (as looks increasingly likely) the nation will have voted for essentially the status quo. An interesting outcome for a nation in which the majority says we are going in the wrong direction.

Republicans will keep the House, most outlets are reporting. That’s no surprise: the question is whether the GOP adds to its majority or whether the Democrats cut into that lead a little bit.

CNN is saying that Obama is outperforming his 2008 margin in Cuyahoga county. That’s a key county for him and is good news for his reelection.

President Obama has hit 85% on the Intrade betting market.

Obama is underporming in Alexandria and Arlington counties, VA. Those are key for the president, and if they indicate a broader swing for Romney among suburban voters, it would be very bad news for him. Incidentally, it would also validate Micharl Barone’s contention that Romney’s strength with suburban voters is a key asset.

NBC’s Chuck Todd tweeted that his sources in both campaigns say Romney will eke out a win in Florida by less than 100 thousand votes. Romney needs Florida to win the presidency, but if his margin there is low it could portend poorly for the rest of the night.

Interestingly, Philip Klein tweets that Obama is only getting 66% of the Jewish vote in Florida. In 2004 Kerry got 80%. If that result holds nationally, it would be the best Republican result since 1988, says Jonathan Tobin.

Democrat Chris Murphy has been projected to win the Senate race in Connecticut, The Daily Caller reports.

Richard Mourdock is in trouble. The Republican Senate nominee from Indiana is currently running behind his Democratic challenger Joe Donnelly. But Mitt Romney is already projected to win the state, and he’s running a full 10 points ahead of Mourdock. Only 30% of the vote is in, but not a good sign for the GOP.

Sean Trende is pointing out on Twitter that Romney isn’t doing well enough in the Virginia swing counties that he needs to win.

CNN reports that Team Obama is feeling confident about what they’re seeing. Their one worry is the national popular vote.

 

As for Team Romney, they’re telling CNN that Romney already has his victory speech prepared. Both sides are projecting confidence. Only one can be right.

One thought on “Election night live–Update: Obama wins

  1. What a surprise. The US voter chose the ‘peace candidate’. I think that it is time for the GOP to start looking in the mirror and for its ‘supporters’ to think about taking the Federalist or Whig route and let the party die.

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