05 | November | 2012

Wednesday, May 22, 2013

My 2012 electoral vote map and popular vote predictions

James Pethokoukis | November 5, 2012, 7:03 pm

Based on both polls and reporting, my best guess is that Mitt Romney will be elected the 45th President of the United States, winning the two-party popular vote 51% to 49% and the electoral vote by 301 to 237 for … read more >

Carpe Diem

If ticket scalping and price gouging are illegal, then what about ‘coin scalping’ nickels on ebay above face value?

Mark J. Perry | November 5, 2012, 5:34 pm

The Advocate — “Louisiana State University (LSU) Police arrested at least six people Saturday for scalping tickets on campus before the LSU-Alabama football game. LSU Police spokesman Capt. Cory Lalonde said officers were actively patrolling campus looking for ticket scalpers.” … read more >

Image credit: Warrenski (Flickr) (CC BY-SA 2.0)

Politics and Public Opinion, Elections

Ask the scholars: Who are the American voters of 2012?

Brittany French | November 5, 2012, 3:11 pm

With the election being held tomorrow and the future of the nation in the hands of the majority, the spotlight shines on the voters marching their way towards the polls. There has been a great deal of speculation regarding the … read more >

Pethokoukis

The ‘Bread and Peace’ election forecasting model: Romney 53.4%, Obama 46.6%

James Pethokoukis | November 5, 2012, 2:30 pm

So we now have the final 2012 forecast from political scientist Douglas Hibbs who looks at two factors when forecasting presidential elections: a) per capita real disposable personal income over the incumbent president’s term, and b) cumulative U.S. military fatalities in … read more >

Image credit: Infomatique (Flickr) (CC BY-SA 2.0)

Economics, International economy

Europe’s lost decade?

Desmond Lachman | November 5, 2012, 1:56 pm

One has to pity Europe. Almost three years into its sovereign debt crisis, there are no signs that its crisis is letting up. Indeed, last week, in a remarkable moment of candor, Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, told a regional … read more >

Pethokoukis

Income inequality and education

James Pethokoukis | November 5, 2012, 11:53 am

OK, so let’s say you are really worried about rising income inequality. How, exactly, would the Buffett rule or raising taxes on private equity investors address this problem? Not at all if you think the causes of rising inequality are … read more >

Politics and Public Opinion, Elections

One more time: Romney vs. Obama on energy

Kenneth P. Green | November 5, 2012, 11:44 am

Based on both actions and words, it’s clear that a second Obama administration would see a continued trend toward the federalization and centralization of energy policy. read more >

An Iranian woman in hijab. Image credit: Ed Yourdon (Flickr) (CC BY-SA 2.0)

Foreign and Defense Policy, Middle East and North Africa

Khomeini’s granddaughter on Facebook

Ali Alfoneh | November 5, 2012, 11:17 am

According to a US government estimate, there are as many as 14 million Facebook users inside of Iran despite Facebook being blocked for use by Iranian service providers. One of those users is none other than Mrs. Naeimeh Eshraghi, granddaughter … read more >

Politics and Public Opinion, Elections

Nation to vote during highest unemployment rate in 17 elections

Nick Schulz | November 5, 2012, 11:10 am

Eddy Elfenbein points out that, at 7.9%, the unemployment rate today is higher than in the final month before any of last 17 elections. Make of it what you will. read more >

Economics, Pethokoukis

JPMorgan economist: It could take 44 years to get back to full employment

James Pethokoukis | November 5, 2012, 10:47 am

During the past two years — what should be the fat part of the U.S. economic recovery — job growth has averaged about 150,000 jobs a month. While that is better than nothing and better than losing jobs, the pace … read more >

Hindsight Isn’t 20/20
Many lessons should be drawn from the U.S. experience in Iraq. Unfortunately, we’re not learning what we should. […]
The Uses of Scandal
One of the greatest uses of scandal is to vividly demonstrate what new laws are needed and to create the political conditions to get them enacted. […]
Lean In… to Government?
Sheryl Sandberg's runaway best-selling book Lean In has managed to offend both the Left and the Right. Sandberg touts female hard-headedness, yet also calls for an elaborate government- and employer-supplied support system for women. […]
Are American Voters Racist?
Racial prejudice plays a very small role in American politics, but a highly disciplined sense of self-interest on the part of one group may play a very large role in the way the federal government functions. […]