Economics, Pethokoukis

The one chart that shows there’s been no jobs market recovery since the end of the Great Recession

Additional Image Credit: AEI (red text)

Additional Image Credit: AEI (red text)

Economist Michael Darda of MKM Partners:

The U.S. lost 8.87 million private sector jobs during the Great Recession; since job growth resumed in March 2010, 4.73 million private sector jobs have been created, just more than half of the job losses suffered. However, the level of private sector jobs remains 12.6 million below the pre-crisis trend. …. In other words, a trend growth recovery has succeeded in stabilizing broad measures of labor market health, but catch-up growth is required for meaningful improvement.

We are only getting trend jobs growth, just enough to deal with population growth –but not enough to close the jobs gap, as defined by Darda. We won’t fill the jobs gap unless we get much faster growth than the 1.5%-2% GDP rate we are growing at  at right now.

 

10 thoughts on “The one chart that shows there’s been no jobs market recovery since the end of the Great Recession

    • I wonder how “cut and paste” Max Einstein would explain this inconsistency. I guess we won’t find out until he gets some brokerage’s Monday Morning Research Brief next week and posts it right here.

      Stay tuned…I can’t wait for more of his timely “value-added” stuff.

        • Hahahaha…you are out of your “cut and paste” league Einstein. Your teleprompter is not keeping up with real time, and thinking on your feet simply isn’t your bag. In that sense, Einstein, your share a lot with your messiah. You remind me of Ingamar Johanson who ran into Floyd Patterson’s left hook and wound up flat on his ass with his left leg twitching like a Great Dane scratching a flea.

          Check your Bloomberg Machine again, Einstein. If your “cut and paste” analysis was right, even in the ball park, then the DJIA would be up 100, the S&P would be up 20 and the NASDAQ would be up 30. Whoooooooooops!

          • “Check your Bloomberg Machine again, Einstein. If your “cut and paste” analysis was right, even in the ball park, then the DJIA would be up 100, the S&P would be up 20 and the NASDAQ would be up 30. Whoooooooooops!”

            No it wouldn’t. You haven’t the faintest idea of what you’re talking about. At all.

          • “Cut and paste” Einstein, most major market indexes were down–at best flat–not up as you claim. The S&P 500, and NAZ were down and most other broadly based averages (mid and small caps) were flat at best.

            Your jobs spin wasn’t bought by the market– it voted that you were wrong. “Cut and paste” may help you get your liberal rocks off–but it can’t and didn’t make anybody money–its always old and stale. You have to learn how to think on your feet if you want to make money, not post someone else’s work.

            And that foot of yours is still twitching Ingemar, Floyd’s left hook took you to school!!!

  1. Judging by the sagging market, its beginning to look like a lot of folks managed to finally drill deeper into the numbers and get past the 7.8%.

    The bad aroma is finally reaching their nostrils.

  2. There has been no recovery in the sense of returning to the previous level of health, as all previous recoveries have done. Since the recession officially ended in June 2009, US employment has reset at a much lower level, and job creation levels have remained modest, often below the rate of population growth. The rate of economic growth slowed in 2011 and 2012. We are slouching toward recession territory. The economy has regained no strength with which to weather another economic stress, much less a shock. Massive continuing borrowing has made the US much weaker. The national debt is quickly becoming an economic millstone around our neck.

  3. James, Doesn’t this revisit the trend stationary vs. unit root analysis that Mankiw vs Krugman/DeLong engaged in back in March 2009? It looks like Mankiw was right. And he postulated that we could see this kind of “gap” in all the measures of the economy for a long time. No “V” shaped recovery when balance sheets are damaged. No amount of stimulus will budge demand and we’ve had record Keynesian type stimulus of over $1 trillion per year with little effect on nominal GDP. The only thing that has shown up in the next period in nominal GDP is the deficit spending. The multiplier might even be less than 1 given inflation. It makes one think that incentives are being dampened which is why we don’t see growth except for that which is borrowed from the future.

    There was a satirical paper a long time ago that showed that the Keynesian multiplier was actually negative. The funny thing is it might be right with all the positive incentives to leave the labor force.

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