There’s been a lot of controversy about the FiveThirtyEight election forecasting blog run by Nate Silver at the The New York Times. According to Silver’s analytics, day by day President Obama has been incrementally closing the deal over the past two weeks. (See above chart). That, despite national polls showing Romney with a lead and Team Obama scrambling to shore up its Midwest firewall. Yet prediction market Intrade is showing no such thing. While it does give Obama the edge, the final verdict still clearly remains in doubt.
In addition, the economic numbers continue to point to a narrow Romney win. Models have their role, but it always best to do a reality check. What are the fact on the ground? Sometimes you shouldn’t listen to the GPS. The Machine doesn’t always know best.