Pethokoukis, Politics and Public Opinion

Chart: Pace of jobs growth puts Obama on track to lose 51-49

090712jobsandelection

Dan Clifton of Strategas Research:

The historical relationship between non-farm payroll growth and the pct of vote received in a reelection campaign is very strong. This relationship suggests the President needs to reach 1.1 pct growth to reach the magic 50 pct threshold. After today’s report, the relationship suggests 340k jobs would need to be created next month. The current trajectory suggests the President will receive 49 pct of the two party vote.

 

4 thoughts on “Chart: Pace of jobs growth puts Obama on track to lose 51-49

  1. Unfortunately for the glee Mr. Pethokoukis is taking in the August jobs number, we use an electoral system in this country, and with Romney already pulling out of Michigan (shades of McCain in 2008) Mr. Obama should win this election handily. Mr. Romney really has one constituency to use to topple Obama’s many.

    Nate Silver, the pollster who was chillingly accurate in the 2008 race, gives Obama 313 electoral votes (270 needed to win) and a 79% chance of victory. I doubt there is anything the dull witted and uninspiring Mr. Romney can do to overcome that deficit between now and election day.

    We will then see if Speaker Boehner would then be willing to care more about his country’s fortunes than who sits in the White House.

    • Silver is a hack and worked for Obama in 08. What’s funny he wrote earlier this year that the direction of the rate of job growth was the most important factor. If that is true Obama is toast because the labor participation rate has been sinking all year and now is at its lowest point in 30 years.

  2. This is a flawed analysis.

    Obama gets 80 % of the minority vote and 95 % of the black vote.

    If demographics were the same today as in just 1992, Obama would probably never have been elected in the first place.

    See Brownstein at the Nat’l Journal on demographics. The Republicans need 61 % of the white vote to win.

    They may do it but this will be the last election. Forget trying to get a majority of, say, hispanics on social issues. Economics always trumps social issues and hispanics are by a large an underclass in need of government largesse.

    The political situation in just 4 years from now will be California.
    Endless Democratic governance and the Republicans will be reduced to a piñata, and whenever you guys raise the voice, you’ll be acused of being bitter white people.

    Whoever wins this election, the future belongs to the Democratic party. Demographics is destinty.

    Howl at the moon all you want.

  3. Excellent, spot-on analysis as usual, Jim. Trends like these are called trends for a reason. Add to this the fact that Romney is absolutely swamping Obama in campaign dollars, and this thing is looking like a done deal, with the only variable being the margin of President Romney’s victory.

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