The historical relationship between non-farm payroll growth and the pct of vote received in a reelection campaign is very strong. This relationship suggests the President needs to reach 1.1 pct growth to reach the magic 50 pct threshold. After today’s report, the relationship suggests 340k jobs would need to be created next month. The current trajectory suggests the President will receive 49 pct of the two party vote.
Monday, July 28, 2014
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