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What a gloomy GOP campaign guru just told me in Tampa

Image credit: 2012 Republican National Convention Flickr photostream

Image credit: 2012 Republican National Convention Flickr photostream

Republican National Convention – Tampa, Florida

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll has Mitt Romney up by a point over Barack Obama 47% to 46%. (46% is a truly horrible number for an incumbent.) But it is going to take more than a few narrow polls to change what I sense to be the widespread mood here that Romney is very narrowly losing, but the race remains winnable.

So it was with great interest that I listened to the thoughts a longtime, much-respected GOP operative, whom I will nickname the Gloomy Guru. Among GG’s observation:

– Romney will win North Carolina

– Ohio is iffy in GG’s view, though one very smart, very connected Ohio GOPer thinks the state is lost

–  New Mexico is lost

– Colorado looking good

- Pennsylvania is fool’s gold, not going to happen

– Wisconsin can happen

– Virginia will be a dogfight, is critical

– If Romney loses, there will be war in the GOP over immigration and how party is connecting — or, rather, not connecting — with Hispanic voters. Sticking Marco Rubio or some other profile Hispanic politician on the ticket is not enough. Very adamant about this.

UPDATE:  And, no, GG is not Jon Huntsman, though JH did just write an op-ed on immigration in the WSJ.

14 thoughts on “What a gloomy GOP campaign guru just told me in Tampa

  1. Sounds like the typical political strategist who thrives on “conventional wisdom”. Completely meaningless, especially in August.

  2. New poll from Michigan shows Romney and Obama tied at 47. Combined with the success of the tough nerd Republican governor, collapse of the Democratic machine in Detroit, and reports coming out about GM going back into bankruptcy…Romney is in a stronger position than Obama. The top auto analyst in the country just said GM is in worse shape now than before Obama took office. The government appointed executives are in way over their head, like the man in the White House.

  3. I wouldn’t get too bent out of shape about it just yet, James. After all, McCain and Palin were up by ten points in the polls four years ago today. Anything can happen.

  4. Does your Gloomy Gury have a dog in the immigration fight? Is your Gloomy Gury partly responsible for the immigration problems we currently have?

    There is nothing we can do to ever win the hispanic vote. Period. They are a people with a strong segmented culture they will depend heavily on the government. This country is in crisis because of myopic capitalists and the libertaraian blank slatists who give them ideological justification.

    Your cheap vegitables will become high taxes eventually.

  5. Face it! Your rat Willard Romney WILL LOSE! The republican party is the political special olympian party. Too stupid to win. Obama 2012!

  6. You’d better get your chit wired tight Republican Establishment. You will no longer tell us, you will listen to us and work us. Don’t screw this up as you’ve done for 20 some years or this will be the last collective Republican convention. I’m done with this antiquated centrist crap which is why were in the situation we’re in. That means you Bush, Dole, et al., I don’t see any one of you as a leader of this party but I do see this as a distasteful strategy for you dinosaurs to reclaim glory and fame long gone. After your exemplary work in 2008 (snark) it’s a whole new world that has left you behind so unless you’re running for some office and you’re not I’d respectfully say STFU.

  7. I’m so tired of hearing the useless opinions of these frightful, small-minded, depressing GOP establishment naysayers – Rove, Crystal, et al. and GOP losers like McCain and Dole, who actually have the gall to offer advice on how to win. (They certainly didn’t have the guts to do the winning!) It’s as if they’re working as Dem “suppress the GOP vote” operatives. Comrade Barry is nothing but a nasty, vindictive, oppressive community organizer. By design, he has no positive impact on America whatsoever, but has committed numerous counts of fraud and crimes against the state. Those who support him are proving to be utterly stupid or just as anti-American as Obama. If that tiny cluster of independents hasn’t figured out the difference between the America-hating Obama and the America-loving Romney, then they deserve to be shown the waste bin. There’s absolutely no need to tamp down the conservative message. In fact, that message should be pumped up. Despite these frightened little “gloomy GOP” operatives, Romney will win in a landslide.

  8. Interesting this prognosticator didn’t mention Iowa or Nevada. Anyone who thinks Romney can win Michigan is dreaming. Pennsylvania is LONG GONE. New Mexico is Obama’s and probably Nevada and Ohio. New Hampshire…gone for Romney. And no Republican has won Wisconsin since what…1988? So for argument’s sake, give Romney Iowa and Florida.. Now I’m no expert like Rove or Carville, but I think it comes down to Colorado and Virginia. Give them both to Romney and Obama still wins.

  9. “Market Share”/”Electable” Pubbies are an infectious disease. That’s how Thompson–a Big Gummint Statist managed to win in the Wisconsin primary; his operatives managed to get an “electable” question into a poll.

    Truth? Principles? Bah. Romney will forever be branded with his ‘some babies are more equal than rape-babies’ remarks, but the Rovians agree.

    We’re closer than ever to a viable 3rd party.

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