Pethokoukis

JPMorgan just gave a calamitous economic forecast for Obama

Just out from JPMorgan:

This morning we lowered our tracking of Q2 GDP growth from 1.7% to 1.4%. For some time now we have noted that our Q3 GDP call — which was already below consensus at 2.0% — had risks that were skewed to the downside.

After the latest round of data we have decided to lower our projection for Q3 to 1.5%. The strength in inventories reported this morning suggests that businesses may have got caught offsides when final demand weakened this past spring. That inventory build should weigh on production growth in the third quarter as already-cautious businesses seek to work down stockpiles. Added to this downside, the weakness in June real consumer spending will make the arithmetic for Q3 consumption a little more challenging.

Finally, the decline in gasoline prices — which had been seen as an important support to the economy — has partly reversed itself in recent weeks, thereby lessening the impetus to growth from that source. For 2012 as a whole, we are now looking for growth of around 1.7% on a Q4/Q4 basis, about the same as last year and 0.2%-point below our tracking last week. On a year-ago basis real GDP has been growing at a below-trend pace since early last year. If our forecast is anywhere near correct, that pattern will persist for at least another year, and perhaps even longer.

Basically, this is a forecast for stagnation for the rest of this year and through 2013. Also note that the forecast sees monthly job growth at just 100,000 a month in the third quarter, with the unemployment rate averaging 8.2%.

The worst recovery since the Great Depression shows no signs of improving, and Team Obama should expect no last-minute lift from it.

25 thoughts on “JPMorgan just gave a calamitous economic forecast for Obama

  1. take a look at the wh budget forecast…particularily their projected federal revenue increase of 433 billion(17%) from 2012 to 2013.

    their entire long term budget projection is establishing a baseline of projected revenue, which is completely false.

    in order to peddle the lie that they will get the deficit below a trillion by 2013, once obama is reelected, they had to suggest that revenue will increase by 17%?

    it is one thing for the wh to try and sell this garbage-all presidents do so, to some extent, but it is agonizing to watch the press ignore/facilitate these lies.

    our problems are much deeper than whichever political party occupies the wh.

  2. A general question:
    If the weekly unemployment figures are roughly 370k +/-,
    and the monthly “Jobs Created” figures are about 100k +/-, seems we are going backwards. Perhaps I just don’t understand government figures. Ya think?

    • A bad record,as in, say, “One instance”?

      Rather like all those wizards who said $$billions and $$trillions would keep unemployment under 6%?

      Lemme guess: you trust those latter folks, right?

  3. “stagnation” is real GOOD compared to what they have PLANNED down the road, to turn the USA into a 3rd world country

  4. I wonder if any of you have a problem with this report. For one, this is advice written in a semi illiterate manner. If this illustrates the level of education at JPM then, clearly, there is a problem.

    This, also, acts as an indicator into the really poor choices that have been made at JPM. Simply put, if they cannot write a paragraph correctly then do we trust that they can read correctly?

      • Very possibly! None-the-less this tells me that either the “best and brightest” at the banks (or whatever they are now) are not so well educated or, alternatively, the so called elite schools are producing markedly inferior students.

        I hate to say this but I believe it to be the latter.

    • The language used may be laden with jargon that may not be meaningful to you, but the syntax and structure, while awkward, is correct.

      Perhaps you should read Strunk and White’s classic, “The Elements of Style” to understand the fundamentals of writing? You aren’t as familiar with English grammar as you think you are!

      Incidentally, does this imply that your academic credentials or professional qualifications are similarly worthless?

  5. Havent you all heard, the adminstration has declared that this is the “new normal”. Vote for four more years and STFU.Thanks for you vote,Barack.

  6. Who cares about the economy and what we, as a country, should do about it. I want to know what Mitt Romney did at Bain Capital, other than make lots of money for his investors. That is MUCH more important! Forget about policy, lets all demand Mitts tax returns from 1999!

    • Absolutely, demand all tax records. Then demand Obama’s college records, travel information to Pakistan, social security record, etc.

    • Get over it! This is as important as Obama’s birth certificate! This country needs someone who can fix the economy. Good grief, our president just said that if you own a successful business that YOU DIDN’T built it, someone else did. It’s painfully obvious that he’s way over his head!

      • LET’S QUOTE OBAMA COMLETELY. “OTHER PEOPLE BUILT THE ROADS AND BRIDGES, IF YOU HAVE YOUR OWN BUSINESS, YOU DIDN’T BUILD THAT”(THE ROADS AND BRIDGES) YOU LYING ASSHO……S SHOULD FIND A VIABLE CANDIDATE FOR PRESIDENT AND STOP QUOTING THE LAST HALF OF OBAMA SENTENCES. LIKE THE VERY FIRST ROMNEY AD THAT QUOTED OBAMA QUOTING MCAIN SAYING THAT IF THEY KEEP TALKING ABOUT THE ECONOMY THEY WILL LOSE.

        • Ok you bloviating ignoramus. You’re so smart, tell me where 80% of Government tax revenues come from? Here, I’ll give you a hint. Taxes on business, taxes on business transactions, taxes on payroll, taxes on raw materials, energy and anything else related to conducting business in the good ole USA. 20% of revenue comes from personal income taxes and guess what, some of those people get their income from working for BUSINESS or running a BUSINESS. So which ever way you “left wing sunthin fur nuthins” want to carve it, Obama’s you didn’t build that is a big, fat stinking pile of excrement! Whether he meant their business, he is full of crap, or if he meant the roads and bridges and infrastructure more than 80% of the money for that stuff came off the backs of business and businessmen.
          Well Obama will not get his wish to be remembered as a two term President but as a one term failure. Somewhere, Jimmy Carter is smiling.

    • Typical Dem. always trying to change the subject to make Obama look good. Bain Capital was his job he did what he was sapposed to. Not all buisnesses can make it some are going to fail. It is called supply and demand something our Pres. and his croneys have no clue about.Government should not be in the buisness of running companies or giving out loans or doing anything other than that of which the Constitution has intiltled them to do. Obama is trying to eliminate our Constitution and replace it with socialism. Wake up befor its to late. There are already plenty of countrys out there that support those ideas MOVE TO ONE OF THEM leave America the way it was faught for abide by our Constitution.

      • GEORGE WILL JUST ANNOUNCED THAT ROMNEY IS PERHAPS THE MOST UNQUALIFIED CANDIDATE THAT EVER RAN FOR PRESIDENT. DOSEN’T SAY MUCH FOR HIS SUPPORTERS DOES IT? IF YOU WANT TO BE POLITICAL LEARN TO READ FIRST AND GET EDUCATED.

  7. Gollygee kids, You all are arguing about what smells worse, fresh sh*t or 2 minute old sh*t. Both parties and their BS do nothing but provide fodder for small brains and gutless voters. Grow some ballz or move to Canada. If you really want to try and fix things, tell them to go to hell and vote for a real American. My vote goes to Gary Johnson and his no non-sense approach to our problems. You can try to twist the numbers any way you like, but the real problem is both ruling parties are corrupt to their core and will lead us off the cliff. This country was founded by people with guts to change things, not scared little people who play the lesser of two evils. My family deserves better. Those 2 worthless parties and their stupid policies can kiss my behind. This vet signing off.

    • “This country was founded by people with guts to change things, not scared little people who play the lesser of two evils.”

      Well, that’s what we’d like to believe, but while those ‘people with guts…’ may have *founded* this (stolen) country but it was built by the hands of those who were kidnapped from their homeland, brought here in chains, separated from their families, beaten, tortured, and raped, and forced to work…to death.

      Oh, and this land was forcibly stolen from those who already called it home…after they taught the ‘people with guts’ how to survive here. And the ‘gutsy guys’ pretended to be their friends, until they didn’t need them anymore…

      When we look at it realistically, they don’t sound much better than the 2 current major parties…

  8. I doubt if many of those who like me waste time reading, listening, and responding to the nonsense of many so-called analysts can a) become as wealthy as these analysts, b) rise to be Governor, c) rise to be a Senator of the United States, and d) rise to become President of the United States of America. Stop wasting time reading bloviating idiots who pass for commentators. Spend time at work or at creating your own business. That way you contribute to the growth of the economy.

  9. Yeah, yeah, yadda yadda yadda, everything from today’s bad weather to Snooki’s taste in mixed drinks and thongs, is poor old Obama’s fault, yadda yadda yadda.

    Well, folks, go ahead, vote for Mitt “DUHbya 2.0″, and see how that works out for ya.

    As for me, I’m bettin’ on Mitt, because along with the Ryan Budget (oh, yeah, and a furious bunch of Democrats in Congress filibustering everything that Mitt tries to do… what goes around, comes around) and the debt ceiling fiasco again approaching ’round year-end, I’m hoping on making a few sharp investments, say, in Florida, after the U.S. buck drops to, say, fifty cents Canadian.

    I’m happy that Mitt and the Republican party, and their “2+2=6″ budgetary fantasies, are helping me and other foreigners, to buy America out from under its citizens, at a big discount. It’s awful FUN, rentin’ it back to you poor schleps, at a slight surcharge.

    Keep up the good work, Mitt, Mitch, Sarah, Rush, Michelle and Glenn!

    Signed

    A Happy Foreigner

    • you are stupid canuck, eh? your currency will get punded again because the chinese are rolling over. us dollar will get stronger because we are the safe haven currency whethere you like it or not. why are you all so jealous of us?

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