Pethokoukis

How would a weak second half of 2012 affect Obama’s reelection chances?

07092012gdp

Interesting graph from Citigroup on how the US economy has performed in the second half of presidential election years. A few things pop out:

1. That 2008 number is stunning. Almost surprised McCain didn’t do worse.

2. If Obama wins reelection with GDP growth as weak as it ‘s shaping up to be, the win would certainly be an outlier.

3. Note that growth was negative in the 2H of 1960, and we had an extremely close election where the incumbent presidential party — represented by Richard Nixon — lost.

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