Politics and Public Opinion

Obama’s entire reelection problem in one chart

This chart from the good folks over at Strategas research shows why Team Obama should be worried if it already isn’t. President Obama is below the reelection Mendoza line.

Weak growth equals weak incomes equals a one-termer.

Here is a just-updated forecast from IHA Global Insight that suggests income growth will remain subpar:

Unfortunately, 2012 is starting to look horribly like 2011, when initial high hopes that the recovery would kick into high gear were subsequently dashed. A steady drumbeat of bad news from overseas has been followed by disappointing news on US employment growth. Sharply lower oil prices should provide an important support to growth in the second half of the year, but both US and global growth prospects have deteriorated.

The deceleration in US employment growth has become more severe. We now have two consecutive months of sub-100,000 job creation. We still believe that a “warm-winter” payback and other seasonal-adjustment issues have exaggerated the slowdown. But the question of how employment growth could pick up amid still-modest growth has been answered with slower employment gains.

FWIW, the NYT’s Nate Silver finally unveiled his election forecasting model. It gives Obama a 62% chance of winning with the final outcome Obama 50.5% vs. Romney 48.4%. But apparently it doesn’t take into account this month’s woeful economic numbers like the recent jobs report. So we’ll see, but it should be interesting.

3 thoughts on “Obama’s entire reelection problem in one chart

  1. Nice chart and very predictive of what is likely to come. I also take note of the dismal drop in the DJ average in June, right up to the day after the Wisconsin recall vote. The DJ is now seeming to recover and has posted record gains since the Wisconsin win by Walker. I have heard many analysts explain this by suggesting it is due to decreasing fears about Europe economic woes, but I do not see the situation in Europe as having changed much, especially with the Spanish credit downgrade, I am inclined to believe that the surge in the Dow is linked to the reassurance that the vote in Wisconsin heralds the end of Obama and that is inspiring investors confidence. Or am I just too biased?

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