This may be as good as it gets. Sputter-speed growth of around 2% and a moribund labor market. As the above chart suggests, the recovery is losing momentum. Here’s Goldman economist Jan Hatzius:
Goldman Sachs is turning increasingly bearish on the U.S. economy, expecting the nation to have added only 125,000 new jobs in April, as the effects of a warm winter, which buoyed employment late last year, wear off.
The forecast is far lower than the Reuters estimate of 170,000, and the average 177,250 jobs created every month from December to March. According to a report by the bank’s Chief U.S. Economist Jan Hatzius, the jobs report will be a further sign of a weakening economy, where inventory accumulation has accelerated and final demand growth remains sluggish.
“Real income growth remains soft, partly because of higher energy prices, wealth effects are not yet particularly positive, consumer confidence remains modest, and again some of the recent strength in retail sales probably reflects weather effects,” Hatzius said.
And this from Goldman market strategist Abby Joseph Cohen is equally as gloomy:
She said she agrees with Goldman economist Jan Hatzius’s forecast of the second half being more “difficult” than the first. “We have seen some deceleration in economic activity” after a mild winter that might have “puffed up” seasonal growth in the first quarter, she said.
Wait, the second half will be “more difficult” than the first? We might be lucky to have 2% growth in the first half. The econ team at Citigroup seems equally as sober: “The 1Q GDP data, a month of rising jobless claims, and likely back-to-back moderate gains in non-farm employment should dampen remaining optimism that 2013 would be the year of decisive growth acceleration in the U.S. Why should any other quarter in 2012 be markedly better than 1Q?”
And given the reluctance of big banks to make U.S. recession calls, I have to think that plenty of these folks are worrying we might get a negative quarter at some point this year. Imagine the political shock wave if, say, the third quarter dipped even a smidgen. To use President Obama’s favorite analogy, the U.S. economy would be back in the ditch. And that report would be released by the Commerce Department on Oct. 26, just 11 days before the election.
Anybody want to bet that the report might be ‘delayed due to technical difficulties’?
I would put my money on manipulation rather than delay. Obama is going to need good news, rather than merely the delay of bad news.
That, or Obama will point and say, “LOOK, SQUIRREL!” to distract the mindless voters that don’t pay attention to this sort of stuff. Get ready for some Chicago-style politics at it’s finest.
Can you say “Bush”? I think you can.
Bbbbb..but it’s all Bush’s fault!
I wonder what manufactured outrage will hit the headlines a day or two before this and be propped up with chronic sensationalistic soundbites that tend to herd the sheep?
Wow, cheering for the failure of your own country. It’s funny, you right wingers had a name for liberals when you felt that they were doing the same. Rhymed with “reason”….”season”….oh, it’ll come to me eventually.
No, we’re cheering for the restoration of Liberty and freedom that has been sorely lacking the past 3 years.
Are you saying that freedom of speech is now equivalent to Rhymed with “reason”….”season”… ???
Let me ask you – Besides letting the Bin Laden go ‘Forward’, what Positive things has Barry Downgrade Obama done for the country?
Trying to destroy religious Liberty, free-speech Liberty, self defense Liberty and economic Liberty sounds a lot like: Rhymed with “reason”….”season”….oh, it’ll come to me eventually.
No, we’re cheering for the restoration of Liberty and freedom that has been sorely lacking in the past 3 years.
Are you saying that freedom of speech is now equivalent to Rhymed with “reason”….”season”… ???
Let me ask you – Besides letting the Bin Laden go ‘Forward’, what Positive things has Barry ‘Downgrade’ Obama done for the country?
Trying to destroy religious Liberty, free-speech Liberty, self defense Liberty and economic Liberty sounds a lot like: Rhymed with “reason”….”season”….oh, it’ll come to me eventually.
Sorry for the double post.. Sorry for the double post..
Barack Obama is a SCOAMF.
You really are a coward, James. Enjoy your bubble.
And I thought a contentious debate in the Congress on the debt limit this fall was going to be the October surprise.
No, it won’t happen on Oct. 26. If the third quarter is negative, the initial report on 10/26 will be in postive territory and won’t get revised downward until after the election. The initial reports, for media trumpeting purposes, are ALWAYS better under Obama than the revised numbers end up being.
In fact, the odds of the 10/26 report for 3Q being revised downward after the election are significantly higher than the odds that Obama will be reelected.
You are right, Dave. They are manipulating the numbers now. Unemployment is much higher than 8.2% – they just keep reducing the size of the workforce. I am sure we will be told that we are growing faster than we are now.
Obama 2012, it’s a done deal!
After that I think will change the constitution, then it will be Obama 2016, Obama 2020, just so we can watch the racist corporate owned tea party folks immolate themselves en masse. LOL
You are an idiot. There was a reason why the the term limits 22nd amendment was passed in 1947 and ratified in 1951 following FDR and his similiarly disasterious economy.
I think he was being sarcastic.
Can’t one of those Czars do something useful for a change? What’s the use of a government takeover of the economy if you can’t even run it properly? Am I projecting too much?
Wow, cheering for the failure of your own country.
No. Just an acknowledgement that Obama’s socialist policies—and his sheer tyranny—are sucking America down into a black hole. He’s not failing, he’s already failed; you’re just too ignorant to have noticed. I didn’t say stupid; I said, and meant, ignorant. You have limited knowledge and a very limited perspective. Must be that wonderful socialist education you had. Sorry.
Ian should read Jonah Goldberg’s ‘The Tyranny of Cliches,’ as his “cheering for the failure of your own country’ is one of the lefty prog-o-sphere’s standards.
No, we conservatives recognize the extraordinary complexity of the economy, and that there are inherent but not obvious limitations on government’s ability to intervene in the economy for good or bad. (Sadly, the scope for doing damage appears much higher than for doing good!). Leftys, by contrast, have an unshakeable faith that “we now have the knowledge” to manage the economy toward better outcomes. It only failed in the past because our progressive fore-parents lacked [fill in the blank -- the abacus, the computer, the Internet, Paul Krugman].
By recognizing government’s limited ability, we also understand that factors out of the control of even the great and powerful BO could lead to an unanticipated economic surge in the fall. Simultaneously we believe that the approach taken by the progs is FUNDAMENTALLY WRONG and will eventually drag our economy into the toilet.
So, we start from a fact-based belief in the wrongness of the Obama/Reid/Pelosi socialist engineering. Our fear is that a temporary and non-systematic positive blip in September/October will gull the electorate into a belief that BO actually knows what he’s doing, thus saddling us with four more years of sorely misguided policies that will become even more firmly entrenched than the abysmal situation in which we currently find ourselves.