Are Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, and Ron Paul—not to mention Republican voters across the nation—wasting their time today on Super Tuesday? Washington insiders from both parties think that with the formerly moribund economy finally picking up, the election is President Obama’s to lose. It’s an opinion reflected in political betting markets such as Intrade, which currently gives Obama around a 60 percent chance of winning a second term.
But does a mild economic recovery really guarantee Obama four more years? I looked at three election forecasting models that key off the economy. Two of them give the election to the GOP, one to Obama. But they’re all real close. And, of course, different economic forecasts produced different results. So when possible, I assumed a so-so recovery, though better than what we saw in 2011.
1. The Yahoo! model. Yahoo! Labs economists Patrick Hummel and David Rothschild have devised a model that they say would have correctly predicted the winner in 88 percent of the 500 individual state elections during the past 10 presidential elections. (Note: That sounds incredibly impressive, but recall that there are relatively few swing states in any given election year.)
The Yahoo! model assumes the following: a) Obama’s approval rating will stay the same between now and mid-June, b) each of the 50 states will report personal income growth that’s average for an election year, and c) that certain key indicators of state ideology will remain unchanged this year.
The Yahoo! model currently predicts that Obama will win 303 electoral votes in November. But as the chart below shows, states such as Virginia, Ohio, New Hampshire, and Colorado could go either way.
The economists speak at length about the inner working of their model over at IEEE Spectrum magazine. In that interview, they said that a separate model shows the Senate “is heavily likely to go to the Republicans at this point.”
2. The Ray Fair Model. The key variables for the Yale economics professor are economic growth (growth rate of real per capita GDP in the first 3 quarters of 2012), inflation (growth rate of the GDP deflator in the first 15 quarters of the Obama administration), and the number of “good news” quarters (number of quarters in the first 15 quarters of the Obama administration in which the growth rate of real per capita GDP is greater than 3.2 percent at an annual rate). Assuming 3 percent overall GDP growth and continued low inflation, Obama would receive 48.9 percent of the two-party vote, losing to the GOP nominee. (Congressional Democrats would do even worse).
3. The Bread and Peace model. Political scientist Douglas Hibbs looks at two factors: a) per capita real disposable personal income over the incumbent president’s term, and b) cumulative U.S. military fatalities in overseas conflicts. If the election were held today, Hibb’s model projects Obama would receive just 45.5 percent of the two-party vote.
But the election is not being held today. Hibbs:
… what really matters for Obama’s re-election prospect is the over-the-term performance record at Election Day in 2012, not the notional vote share implied by conditions at the end of 2011. I’ll make the plausible assumption that American military fatalities in President Obama’s “war of necessity” in Afghanistan continue running at the (politically relatively low) average quarterly rate of the past two years — 115 or 0.37 per million of population … a number that would detract only negligibly from Obama’s expected two-party vote share: -0.25 percentage points.
Hibbs’s conclusion (bold for emphasis):
Given my assumption about the flow of fatalities in Afghanistan, growth rates of per capita real disposable personal income during the remainder of the term will be the deciding, as yet unrealized fundamental factor in the 2012 presidential election. Calculations shown in the table [above] indicate that per capita real income growth must average out at an annualized rate of more than 4 percent per quarter until the end of the term in order for Obama to have a good chance of re-election. …
The statistical properties of the time path of US per capita real disposable personal income indicate that the chances of a year-long run of quarterly growth rates on the order of 4% or higher are no better than 1/7. I judge it likely that real income growth rates during coming quarters will be in the vicinity of 2%, yielding Obama an expected two-party vote share of around 48% (shown by gray shading in the table above).
(Now, if you are trying to create your own model, here’s an analysis of 43 economic variables and their impact on presidential election results.)
So unless we are about to see a 1984-style economic boom, the 2012 Republican presidential nomination definitely looks like it is still worth fighting for.
I dismiss every study that bases its conclusion on historical economic trends… as well as those which presume anything more than mild economic growth between now and the election.
First, our economic troubles over the past few years are not the same as with recessions and recoveries in the past.. so what use is looking at how the economy performed in the past as a means of making a prediction as to how it performs in the next few months? That’s akin to predicting how an athlete will recover from ACL surgery by looking at how her recovered from having chicken pox.
Second, Newton’s laws apply to economics. The economy will continue in the direction it is going unless and until something happens to change its direction/speed. Right now, the baseline is nervousness and apprehension about the future (evidenced by companies sitting on their hands and cash). Other than innate American optimism emerging, there is very little on the horizon to indicate any change in outlook. In fact, there are more problems out there than opportunities. Europe isn’t going away, it’s more likely to blow up. Iran is not going to be solved. The fear of higher medical costs resulting from Obamacare aren’t going away, nor is the fear that Obama is doing everything he can to raise taxes.
Nice try, o’stupid has no close and no clue…
as you were, “clothes.”
88% correct model? So that means 12% incorrect right? Obama only won in 2008 by 7% so 12% incorrect is pretty much USELESS right?
Plus, until we get into the actual General Election and support for Romney consolidates, there is literally no way any model created today can be accurate except by sheer luck.
HA! Even if this were true, it would mean that Obama will be even more ineffectual his second term. He’d have a Republican controlled House AND Senate, so how likely would he be to get anything on his agenda passed? He’d have to do more of his government by executive order and government by ignoring the law… he’s already set dangerous precedents in 3 years, what other violations will he commit if given an extra 4?
Thankfully, Obama won’t be re-elected. We’ll see if our new Republican President, House, and Senate can finally pass a budget since Obama hasn’t managed to do that despite two years of having a Democrat control of the presidency, House, and Senate.
If the Senate is controlled by Republicans, then Impeachment proceedings can begin for Obama and the nation could then get rid of him for good and hopefully even put Obama and company in prison for afew years, Obama said he wanted a few more years, that would be a good start for him, and a benefit for the people of the united states.
You mean the same Yahoo that has recently partnered with Bill Maher? This model belongs in the crapper on a role…..
Every time someone goes to the pump, they will be reminded not only of the price of gas, but that they have less money in their pocket . . . .in which they should have more if the “recovery” of Obama’s was anything near normal.
Second, given the focus of the primary and the R’s tearing each other up, Obama can’t even get to 50% approval unless the sample is severely skewed. The one silver lining of the primary season is basically that it removes all the baggage of ads that can be directed at the nominee. Obama has not had any bad press (yes, I know their one in the same) and when folks start focusing on his record and not on a 30 year old Georgetown student asking for free birth control, what’s he going to say? I just need 4 more years?
Finally, the 18-28 group just will not come out and vote for him this time. It was cool the first time around, but that girl has already been met and slept with. It’s going to be hard to sneak her into your parents basement and not out of your dorm room (i.e., they have no jobs, what’s the point of re-electing the guy who was in charge when you graduated).
Here’s what will determine who wins this fall: the price of gas. People are already grumbling now, so, if (or more likely when) gas hits $5-6/gallon this summer it’s going to flare into open revolt: Obama might as well start packing his kit for the hard slog back to Hyde Park.
Don’t send Obama back to Hyde Park, Illinois citizens don’t want Obama back, send Obama back to his homeland of Kenya where him and his bro can be happy together.
Would anyone expect a different conclusion from Yahoo?
so the world is going to go into hypersleep until November? I don’t think so.
Ain’t happening Jimmy P.
Unemployment is not improving, despite the doctored numbers given the American public by Obama’s Labor Department.
The USA currently has the lowest percentage of participating adults in the labor force since the stat was first implemented.
“Yahoo Election Model Predicts” has to be an oxymoron. All they ever care about above the fold on their home page is the smacking religion/conservatives while pushing LGBT agendas. If their CEO would really like to get the stock price up a bit I’d suggest having content choices vs. NorCal junk.
Just stop!! I am so tired of the liberal left, including Yahoo, telling us all how America will vote. They do not recognize the anger and concerns of many, many citizens. However, they must do anything they can to support their candidate and not to be “confused with the facts”. We will remember in November.
Dewey defeats Truman!
Yahoo is the bunch of morons who REFUSED a $31 per share takeover bid from Mr Softee in 2008 – the price has not been above $20 since then. I think I’ll find some other source of models, thank you.
Did Yahoo also predict the upcoming massive layoffs of Yahoo employees? Hard to believe with such quality work, huh?
I have a model of my own. It goes like this. Obama won 52.8% of the popular vote in 2008, a year which was a perfect storm for him. If just 1 in 20 Obama voters flips to the Republican candidate, Obama’s percentage dips below 50% making the race a tossup. If he loses 1.5 (1 flips, 1 stays home) he loses the election.
My model is predicated on several assumptions:
1) no McCain voters will flip to Obama (at least no statistically significant number)
2) the demagraphics gains of Dems with the Hispanic vote is offset by the demagraphic gains of Repubs with larger family sizes (20% larger and growing)
3) there is no cataclysmic event between now and the election
I’ve posted this on many web sites and so far the only place I’ve gotten an argument was on demagraphics. One more point: Obama has a ceiling of 52.8%. His floor is likely the 39% he earned at Gallup at one point. He presently hovers in the 45-48% range on matchup polls with specific candidates. That’s likely his present true ceiling.
In short, Repubs should win with a significant percentage win and electoral win.
Given that the government has redefined inflation every couple years for several decades, each time removing more and more actual indicators of inflation so that the official rate will be far below the actual rate, using the official inflation rate for anything is bound to lead to a bogus result. Food and energy costs, for instance, are no longer included in the official inflation rate yet that is where nearly all Americans get hit the hardest by it.
Also, “good news quarters” as an indicator? Really? There is a massive disconnect between the “news” reported by the Obama water-carriers posing as journalists and how actual voters feel the economy is moving. Much of the country (outside the DC beltway where the bureaucracy is a booming ‘industry’) has experienced obamanomics as an unmitigated disaster yet nearly every quarter has resulted in “good news” from the obamamedia.
The one interesting thing about this is the ranking of states from deepest red to deepest blue. It does clearly show which states are the “swing states”. The massive gap from FL to VA (for Obama odds of victory) is probably accurate – Obama is doomed in FL. How they get ME being more blue than MA is inexplicable.
We’ll see come November how well this holds up. My guess would be that it overestimates Obama’s vote share by 3-5% and odds of victory by 15-20% per state.
Where are people putting their money? Thei actual money as in betting?
“… it is likely that President Obama will once again win his reelection”
Barack Obama: -220 – Odds On Favorite
Mitt Romney: +250
TO:
The funding sponsors of this exercise – - -
Stop wasting your money on a constantly wavering enterprise.
TO:
The readership of this would-be exercise – - -
Stop wasting your time on these snapshots in time.
I have not heard one Democrat, Republican, or Independant on any website say that they didn’t vote for Obama in 2008 but they plan on voting for him in 2012, BUT…… I have seen numerous Dems and Indies post that they voted for him in 2008 but will in NO WAY cast a ballot for him again.
Considering he only garnered 52 % as an unknown option to McCain, I would bet he is Toast in Novmber.
I totally agree!! In my gut, I feel that Obama will lose. He is a smug, arrogant commun ity org. who is decimating our miliatary might, and is spending taxpayer money on this green cra*.
God forbid, if he gets in…even if we hold the House, and acquire the Senate, this wanna be king will go around Congress to pass his rules.
People are either dumb as a rock, asleep, but I do see some who leaned to him have been burned. America is burning while this jerk golfs.
Can you say banana republic???
I think people are forgetting just how pathetic the republican slate is. Obama will crush Santorum or Gingrich with 30 states. Romney? He has the highest unfavorables of any candidate at this point in the election cycle ever.
There is a reason Obama is ahead in all the polls, on intrade, etc.
Also, Obama won 53% of the vote in 2008, to McCain’s 46%, not to mention a crushing landslide in the electoral college. That’s a lot of votes he can hemmhorage and still win.
Every single one of you anti-Obama KKK Conservatives,(especially mike88) will be crying in your beer on Election Night. Heck, I’ll gladly pay for each of you to leave the USA and move to Europe/Canada. OBAMA-BIDEN 2012, THE PRO-AMERICA TICKET!
i think if you dumb founded stupid arragent republicans would stop opposing everything obama tries even stuff that has bi partisan support or is supported by most idependents and republicans then we wouldant be as bad right now
and do u people even read unemployment is 8.3 percent we created 200,000 something plus jobs last month and by the way unemplyment was above 10 percent and we were lossing 500,000 jobs a month when bush left and aobama came in so why should we keep obama thats why i dont want high unemployment and 500,000 people losing their jobs every month
and our soldiers dieing for people who hate us not to mention if rommey or santorum gets elected then we will be in two more wars iran and syria
so i think you republicans should stop trying to get obama out and start actually trying to help the economy and jobs and healthcare which they dont support because they know if poor people get better retail prices ,paychecks and good healthcare they will vote democrat
lastly stop with the birth certificate thing and the muslim thing and the he not a ccristian one too
if you idiots pay as much attention to those lies then we would have a better economy now
p.s if i knew kids would not read this this would have been much more vulgar because i believe you republicans deserve much worse after what your party did to this country from 2000 to 2008