What are the odds of the U.S. slipping back into recession? Many Wall Street firms put the chances at around 30-40 percent — assuming no EU financial crisis. But research from the Federal Reserve finds that that since 1947, when two-quarter annualized real GDP growth falls below 2 percent, recession follows within a year 48 percent of the time. And when year-over-year real GDP growth falls below 2 percent, recession follows within a year 70 percent of the time. Well, guess what? Now that the Commerce Department has lowered its third-quarter GDP estimate to 2.0 percent from 2.5 percent, it means the four-quarter GDP average is at just 1.5 percent, prime recession territory.
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