What are the odds of the U.S. slipping back into recession? Many Wall Street firms put the chances at around 30-40 percent — assuming no EU financial crisis. But research from the Federal Reserve finds that that since 1947, when two-quarter annualized real GDP growth falls below 2 percent, recession follows within a year 48 percent of the time. And when year-over-year real GDP growth falls below 2 percent, recession follows within a year 70 percent of the time. Well, guess what? Now that the Commerce Department has lowered its third-quarter GDP estimate to 2.0 percent from 2.5 percent, it means the four-quarter GDP average is at just 1.5 percent, prime recession territory.
Hello James,
The economic environment has been significantly changed in the Modern Information Age. I believe a serious mistake has been made in the market over the last 20 to 30 years, and it created an economic death spiral in the economy. Strangely, our economic experts have not considered this at all in their ruminations about the economy.
I hope you will have a moment to see this: “The Real Cause of the Current Economic Crisis and a Suggested Solution” http://goo.gl/9y8Uf
Sincerely,
Luke