Last night at the AEI co-sponsored GOP presidential debate on national security, I asked this question: “Yesterday [Monday], the United States and UK slapped Iran with new sanctions. We haven’t bought oil directly from Iran in more than three decades, and have had targeted sanctions in place for more than half that time. Nonetheless, Iran is probably less than a year away from having a nuclear weapon. Do you believe there is any set of sanctions that will stop Iran from getting the bomb?”
While many in the journalism world focused on the quasi-answers to that question from the candidates, many Twitterati were more consumed by my “less than a year” assessment, challenging me to cite a source. Okey dokey, folks. Here’s David Albright of the Institute for Science and International Security (by no standards a “conservative” or “pro-Israel” outfit):
Iran could make enough for a bomb in little more than six months using 1,000 advanced centrifuges if it decided to divert its stock of U.N. safeguarded low enriched uranium in a dash for a weapon.
Here’s the more hawkish Bipartisan Policy Center’s take:
We calculate that, if it chooses, Iran could produce enough highly enriched uranium for a nuclear device in just 62 days using its existing stockpiles and current enrichment capability.
Quibblers will suggest that there are important “ifs” in both these assessments. And yes, the key “if” is “if” Iran decides to build a bomb. So, I suppose when I said “less than a year away from having a nuclear weapon,” I should have added, “if they want one.” But… isn’t that the point? Do we want to leave this decision up to Khamenei?
David Albright ?! How good was he on the run up to Iraq fiasco ?
Poor source leads to stupid decisions. Enjoy your sinecure.
Really the time they may acquire the nuclear weapons should not matter. Be it 10 yrs or 1 day, the point is that this is a dangerous and adventurous regime seeking the most dangerous type of WMDs. Would any one of these twitterati peeps give a knife to a drunken mad man? I bet they wouldn’t. It really doesnt matter when the regime gets the nuke. Their character is and should be of concern to the civilized western world.
I mean what can I say you blank-pitch empty brained. You call u.s. & u.k. civilised? Let’s see who has done what over the past 100 years? us and uk together, filthy and murderous crimes by Nepal bombs and Atomic bombs and Phosphoric bombs in Vietnam, in Japan, in Palestine, in Iraq, in Afghanistan, in South American countries, in African countries, in Yugoslavia, in Libya, in Yemen, in Bahrain … On the contrary, Iran has injected the world with realistic courage, no-bending and fight back, technology, art, rich & deep culture, civilization going back to a few thousands of years, poetry, delicious cuisines, beautiful and everlasting architecture, discoveries and inventions, but most importantly unity and slapping the mouth of those arrogant and filthy politicians in us and uk, european countries, canada, australia and arabic countries who have torn up and destroyed peoples’ houses and lives in daylight, just like a bunch of wild animals. Now, you want to tell us about a risk and danger from Iranian side. Get a brain first. By the way, I do not support restrict islamic/non islamic believes and rules, so don’t get me wrong you brainless.
While I am gonna get a brain as you put it, I’d advise you to do 2 things: 1- Take some ESL courses so your spelling and grammar can improve, 2- Get a life. Thanks.
Then you proved you have a brain…….. but it is only the size of the smiley face in your message. I mean come on, you left all the serious concerns related to u.s. and u.k. crimes and instead paid so much attention to nitty gritty things like my spelling and grammer. The latter won’t save the worl but the former will certainly wake you up to realities.
This phony analysis is pure none sense. Ms. Pletka repeats the old Israeli propaganda about Iran’s N. Bomb, which goes back to 1992. Claiming that David Albright has no Israeli slant is crazy. Plus, he is no expert in arms control, but a pretender who makes up stories without any proof or emperical data. So, he is an Israeli enabler to say the least. The Israeli crowd “read agents” in USA and the western world are hyping this issue to attack Iran. The only big loser would be the US tax payers, soldiers and Iran will produce a N. weapon if we dare attacking their country. The drunken mad man in this matter is the Israeli leadership and the gutless US politicians “AIPAC slaves”, with proven history in aggression and bad judgment.
Manufactured facts no longer fool the US public, Ms. Pletka.
Iran has been supposedly “just six months” away from making a bomb for over 30 years now. Sorry, we’re not buying the nonsense anymore.
Why Can’t IRAN Have a Nuclear ………., When Most of the EU Countries have it and also state of ISRAEL Have Nuclear, Then why not IRAN.
My Question to all the reader is How many Invasions IRAN did in Last 60 Years?
Zero Invasions (correct me If I’m Wrong)
How Many WAR IRAN fought in Last 60 Years?
One In self Defense.
Now
How many Invasions USA did in Last 60 Years?
Iraq, vietnam, Afganistan,
How Many WAR IRAN fought in Last 60 Years?
All Above Plus Nuke on JAPAN….
this is the real picture of CIVILIZED WESTERN WORLD.
How do you come up with: “Iran is probably less than a year away from having a nuclear weapon”. Can someone explain what rule is being used to make such an assertion. I can as easily say Iran is a month away from the bomb or 100 years away from the bomb, or the moon is made of blue cheese. Danielle Pletka is an Israeli firster, we all know that. But, the game this crowd is playing to get US into another war in the middle east for their benefit isn’t a secret anymore. Danielle, take your rifle and bayonet, go to war with Iran on behalf of Israel, we Americans had enough.
thank you for the post. what i find insulting is that the people that scream for an iranian invasion dont “have a dog in the hunt” so to speak. most if not all have never seen combat. many also dont realize that the CIA has been involved with the over throw of their soveriegn government since the 1950′s.
there was an interview with gen schwartzkoff done a few years back and when asked about iran, he was vehemently against it. 400k combat troops minimal to go into that country, he also said a draft would have to be re-instated. people “in the know” like robert baer (former CIA in the region for the past 20 yrs) have stated, let them have nuclear power. many also dont realize that they held off the iraqis for 8 plus years with no support from the international community. while iraq had support from the u.s. and the rest of nato. inspite of our percieved military might we will def be defeated and end up leaving with our tails between our legs. ive been there, im familiar with the people and the region. trust me when i say, this is something we want no parts of.
i also have to agree with ron paul, be honest and upfront with real communication with the current regime. we did with the russians who posed a greater threat. open up embassies there and allow them to do the same. also, sanctions dont work either. allow investment, and travel. in time current situations will change and adjust on their own.
You might want to take a look at the Mossad assessment to the Knesset from this time last year, which gave a date of circa 2012. The issue is not material, they have enough now for a dirty bomb, but a missile delivery system. On that front, the UK reported earlier this year that Iran tested a rocket for this purpose. I would check out the Der Spiegel piece on Iran’s war head efforts. Albright has pointed out on his site that an IRGC publication alluded to the imminent testing of a nuclear device earlier this year.
For those who don’t believe there is an issue, I have a question, why would Iran have silos and missile sites strewn across the country, if not to use them and because they were not far from the culmination of the program?
Sure, “Gog vs Magog”, according to Revelation